Tracking Transction in 2015: The BJP’s rise and its ambitions in the states

Ex-friends vs ex-rivals

It has seen friends turn rivals and rivals turn friends. And come 2015, it is Bihar that will decide whether the Narendra Modi factor continues to work.
While Delhi will be the first state to see Assembly elections in the new year, Bihar is the one prestige fight no side wants to lose. Swords have been drawn for some time now. If on one side stands the BJP’s one-man army, on the other is the assembled Janata Parivar, led by the big two, RJD and JD(U).

Having split from the BJP on the question of Modi, only to see the latter rise and rise, Nitish Kumar has taken the lead in stitching the Janata Parivar together. Lalu Prasad, who cannot contest polls in the near future or hold any important position because of his conviction in the fodder scam case, has read the writing on the wall, and played along.

Each sees the other as filling a crucial gap against the resurgent BJP. For Nitish, it is the Muslim-Yadav vote bank that Lalu brings in, while Lalu hopes Nitish’s image of a development man will blunt some of the charges of lawlessness against his own regime.

With the BJP having earlier aligned with Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP and Upendra Kushwaha to work out its own “social mix”, it would be interesting to see how that fares against the RJD-JD(U)’s combined support base of Dalits, Muslims and OBCs, EBCs.

Will caste win the day, or promises of development? That will be another issue answered by the Bihar polls.

Individually, it is a crucial battle for Nitish. Bruised in the battle of egos with Modi, he swallowed a lot of pride to extend a hand to Lalu. Should the voters reject it, it will be a loss of face that he can scarcely afford.
As for Modi, he may face increasingly louder questions on the special attention he has promised Bihar, given Nitish’s unfulfilled demand for special status.

[Kerala    |    Liquor and politics  ]

Cong’s bitter cocktail

Kerala is one of the few states in the Congress’s shrinking kitty, but what with its own hopelessly divided house, the strong Left opposition and the BJP’s growing ambition, the party is hardly sitting pretty.

In the middle of the year, the state will see elections to three-tier local bodies. At present, most of the local bodies are ruled by the Congress-led UDF. Should the party fare badly in the elections that are seen as a bellwether for the Assembly polls, Chief Minister Oommen Chandy will face questions about his ability to lead the Congress.

Chandy already has a running battle with Congress state president V M Sudheeran and has no love lost with Home Minister Ramesh Chennithala. A revolt could be just a defeat away.

In that cocktail is mixed the state’s new liquor policy. With the Congress’s intra-party rivalries fuelling that debate, the matter would finally be decided in 2015 when several petitions pending in court are decided.

For the CPM too, 2015 will be crucial. After 16 years as party Kerala secretary, Pinarayi Vijayan will step down at the state conference scheduled in February. Vijayan is almost certain to contest the 2016 Assembly elections, marking his return as a mass leader, and taking on his rival V S Achuthanandan, the grand old crowdpuller of Kerala politics.

Despite a clear support base, the BJP has always been an also-ran in the state. But party chief Amit Shah’s recent visit has brought new enthusiasm in the ranks. The BJP could seek to make its presence felt, starting with the local polls. The party will also get a new president as incumbent V Muraleedharan, who is not favoured by the RSS, will complete his second term in February.

[Punjab    |   Frinedship going sour  ]

SAD times coming

Having failed to win a closely fought contest in 2012, the Congress has something to cheer about in Punjab at last. Long-time friends Shiromani Akali Dal and BJP now seem headed for a split. Taking a cue from PM Narendra Modi who declared drugs a major problem, the BJP has been on the offensive — and has taken the Akali Dal by surprise with its vehemence in demanding the resignation of Punjab Revenue Minister Bikram Singh Majithia after he was questioned by the Enforcement Directorate.

The Akalis took on the BJP and Centre in return, pointing fingers at the production of opium in BJP-ruled states Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. It also accused the BSF of failing to check the flow of drugs from Pakistan.

The BJP’s aggression stems from the good response the party has been receiving to its membership drive in the state. It may decide the numbers are good enough for it to go alone, well ahead of the 2017 Assembly polls. The BJP also hopes to gain from the fact that the Congress remains a divided house.

A fallout of the strain has been the Akali Dal core committee deciding to strengthen its “Panthic agenda”. While this may help the party shore up its core support base, that can hardly be good news for Punjab as a whole.

CHIEF IDEAS

We will finish in 2015 all works ahead of the 2016 Simhastha (Kumbh) Mela. We will promote tourism through it. Good governance will be our focus. SHIVRAJ SINGH CHOUHAN, BJP, Madhya Pradesh

My main focus in 2015 will be tackling unemployment in the state, and especially looking at skill development of the over 20 lakh unemployed people. TARUN GOGOI, Congress, Assam

We envisage in 2015 a state where no one feels deprived, the delivery of services is hassle-free, people take pride in the state, and women enjoy safety. MANOHAR LAL KHATTAR, BJP Haryana

In 2015, my government will focus on sadak, shiksha and swasthya, apart from preservation of the environment and ecology of Himachal Pradesh. VIRBHADRA SINGH, Congress, Himachal Pradesh