The twin splits in Maharashtra’s entrenched alliances has set the stage for a division of votes, too. The Shiv Sena and the BJP will separately try to retain a vote-bank whose support they enjoyed in alliance, as will the Congress and the NCP. And the MNS will present a fifth rather than its usual third dimension. Raj Thackeray announed his manifesto and 153 candidates Thursday. The Congress and the NCP have together enjoyed the support of Dalits (10.6 per cent of the population), Muslims (12-14 per cent) and Marathas (30 per cent), among whom the last, largely loyal to the NCP, also include sections that go for the Sena. The 54-per-cent OBC share, always split between the Sena-BJP and the Congress-NCP from region to region, will now have four options rather than two, as will tribals in Nandurbar. The traditional plank of Hindutva has helped the Sena and the BJP complement each other, the region again determining which party has the support. From the Maratha vote bank, those loyal to the Sena added to the BJP’s strength but their vote now will be split straight between the Sena and the MNS. The Sena stands to lose the BJP’s 17-per-cent Gujarati votebank in Mumbai. The North Indian vote has always been shared between the Congress and the BJP, both perceived as pan-Indian. “People are used to voting for the Sena-BJP or the Congress-NCP as alliance partners. Now, in a multicornered contest, a lot will depend on the party the voter wants to win,” said Surendra Jondale, head of political science in Mumbai University. Sena president Uddhav Thackeray has called on party workers to make the party the single largest. Its problems will lie in the regions of Vidarbha (60 seats) and North Maharashtra (36) where the BJP dominates. In Marathwada (48), the Sena appears better placed than the BJP. In western Maharashtra, a Congress-NCP domain, the BJP and Shiv Sena have traditionally struggled. The BJP drew its strength from the Sena in Mumbai (36 seats), Thane (24) and Konkan (12). It will struggle once the Sena campaigns from the emotive sons-of-the-soil plank. “The Marathi manoos will never forgive the BJP,” Shiv Sena senior leader Diwakar Raote said. The Sena is trying to give the elections a Gujarati-versus-Marathi spin, something that could have a bearing on the Congress’s fortunes too. BJP leaders are hoping that it will boomerang on the Sena. A Mumbai BJP leader said, “Prime Minister Narendra Modi got an absolute majority because people voted for him across communities and religions.”
