Election results 2024: Is the counting taking too long and is there a chance the trends could change?

• There are 1700 counting centers across India. Depending on the number of voters in a parliament seat, each can go up to 25 rounds of counting. Each round counts approximately 14,000 votes. Most seats undergo at least 12 rounds of counting.
• By 2pm, a little over 50% of total votes polled in the Lok Sabha elections had been counted.

So when roughly 50% of the votes have been counted, a lead of about 20,000 to 30,000 is more or less considered a stable margin. A margin of over 50,000 is considered unsurmountable.

This election, however, by 1pm, it became evident that there were close to 100 seats in UP, Bihar, West Bengal and Maharashtra where lead margins were less than 10,000 votes.

So when election is as close as this one is, the seats with a thin margin will take time to declare because the lead could flip with every counting round.

How long will we have to wait for?

Could be well after 7pm when most parliament seats would have crossed over 15 rounds of counting. Counting slows down as margins narrow. For many seats, it could even go late into the night. In Madhya Pradesh elections of 2018, counting went on till 9 pm.

Why is Election Commission website showing a smaller number of seats counted than TV channels?

Because TV channels have their own algorithms that project leads and victories based on information they pick up from the feet on the street reporters who are standing around the counting centers. About 90% of the time, they are right.

So that’s technical, but how likely is the lead to stay?

It won’t be surprising for these leads to by and large stay as is.

Is there a hard stop for timing ?

Not really. They will keep counting till the last vote is accounted for. That can go late until midnight as has happened in many cases before.

Is there a precedent of recount?

A candidate can request a recount if they think there is a valid reason for the same. This usually happens when the victory margin is really low. In every Lo Sabha election there are a handful of such seats. In the 2023 Karnataka Assembly elections, Congress’s Sowmya Reddy lost by 16 votes after several recounts in the Jayanagar constituency where there was another candidate by the same name who polled more than her losing margin.

When was the last time trends changed dramatically?

Bihar state election 2015 the leads in favour of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s party was up till 3pm, and then dramatically changed to a Nitish victory in a matter of 20 minutes. In the 2018 Karnataka elections too, the initial trends changed after a few hours.

By when does a new government need to be sworn in?

As per the notification of the EC, the elections have to be completed before June 6. The new Lok Sabha (the 18th) has to be in place by June 16 when the tenure of the 17th Lok Sabha ends.