What Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential elections means, and why India will be watching

Biden’s announcement had been predicted in the last few days, especially with former US President Barack Obama and former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi leaning in favour of him exiting the race after several prominent US Congressmen and Governors called for Biden to step down.

US Vice President Kamala Harris is now the top contender to be on the ticket — but the jury is out on whether she will be the Presidential nomination or still be the Vice Presidential nomination.

What does Biden’s withdrawal mean for the elections?

First, Biden’s candidature was increasingly looking like a win for Trump — some predicted a narrow margin, and some said it would be a landslide. His health, age, fumbles and gaffes had made it quite clear that the Octogenarian was not up for the challenges of the job.

A new poll of Michigan on Sunday showed Trump leading against Biden, 49 per cent to 42 per cent. The EPIC-MRA survey is for the Detroit Free Press, which reports that “Trump led in every region of the state, including in metro Detroit,” where Biden beat Trump 56 per cent to 40 per cent in 2020.

So, by withdrawing himself from the race for the White House, he has avoided a walkover by Trump.

So if not Biden, then who?

Vice President Kamala Harris is the most likely replacement to be on top of the ticket — the Presidential nomination. Biden already gave his endorsement in a post on X.

My fellow Democrats, I have decided not to accept the nomination and to focus all my energies on my duties as President for the remainder of my term. My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best… pic.twitter.com/x8DnvuImJV

— Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) July 21, 2024

But that will again depend on the Democratic Party’s nomination process and whether she is the best-suited candidate. If she wins the nomination, she will be the first woman of colour to be on the party ticket. Being of African-American and Indian-American heritage, she will have those credentials — but in an increasingly divided America, her candidature is not yet a sealed deal.

The juggernaut of the Trump-Vance ticket

This is a tough nomination, though not an insurmountable challenge. Trump is basking in glory after being feted at the Republican National Convention — especially since his near assassination attempt has transformed his status to someone who has defied death. And, by choosing JD Vance as the VP candidate, he has trumped the Democrats on the X-factor — Vance is the first millennial to be on the ticket.

Despite the January 6 Capitol Hill siege stain on Trump, the party is backing him as the sole saviour and has emerged as the most popular Republican candidate to lead the campaign.

This will be a key moment in the Democratic campaign where they have to scramble to find the best possible candidate to replace Biden, and a combination of President-VP to beat the Trump-Vance duo.

They have to keep in mind the permutation-combination of various communities of Hispanic votes, Arab-Americans, and of course, the White, Midwest votes in middle America.

Top Democratic leaders — the likes of Biden, Obama, Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Hakim Jeffries, and the Clintons — will all be putting their minds together to come up with the best possible candidate to take on Trump and the Republican machinery, who have momentum by their side.

What it means for India

Finally, for India, it is a moment to watch the race to the White House closely. The positive approach towards US-India ties has been bipartisan. In the last few months, the ties suffered after allegations were levelled at India for an assassination plot against Sikh separatist leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannu in the US and India’s embrace of Russia. But with the fluid situation in Washington, Delhi has been hedging its bets.

So, its embrace of Putin may age well if Trump comes back to the White House, but the shadow of the assassination plot may still linger — irrespective of change in the White House. Delhi will wait eagerly next few weeks, till the Democratic Party announces its candidates in its convention in August.