Looking for ‘dragon babies’: Could China see more births in 2024? 

2000 and 2012 were Years of the Dragon too and saw a slight uptick in births.

All the animals are linked to specific personality traits, which are believed to be present in people born in that year. In recent years of the dragons, a slight uptick in births has been noticed, stemming from the belief that the mythical animals are lucky. Couples often try to have children in the year of the dragon to ensure good fortune comes their way.

Does the year of the dragon see more births?

Most recently, 2012 and 2000 were years of the dragon (see graph above). South China Morning Post reported earlier, “In 2000… the birth rate in Hong Kong increased by over five per cent.” Mainland China also saw a rise. A Financial Times analysis also found some spikes in birth rates in other years of the dragon – such as 1988 and 1976 – in Singapore, mainland China, Taiwan and Hong Kong.

Why does this happen?

The dragon is an oft-featured symbol in Chinese culture, and considered auspicious. However, as it was seen as exclusive to the Chinese emperor in ancient times, it was used sparingly.

The Chinese zodiac system is believed to be around 2,000 years old. Associating a year with an animal also lends to other beliefs – determining the combinations of two compatible people based on their signs, what years may be lucky for a person, and even the year they should have a child.

A paper in 2017 (‘Can Superstition Create a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? School Outcomes of Dragon Children in China’) from Naci Mocan and Han Yu, two economists at Louisiana State University, studied the impact of this belief.

It found that children who were born in dragon years scored better than other children, on average, on various parameters. This includes the proportion of people possessing at least a Bachelor’s degree compared with their peers, college entrance examination scores, etc. They then examined this data along with surveys of parents on expectations for their children.

It was found that “higher educational achievements of Dragon year children in China are largely due to the much higher expectations of their parents,” the US National Bureau of Economic Research noted.

The paper found that “Differing income and educational levels of parents cannot explain the higher educational achievements of Dragon year children.” Further, surveys showed that parents of such students have “consistently higher expectations for their children than do parents of children born in other years. Moreover, the parents report investing more time, money, and effort into making sure their Dragon-year children succeed.”

“Even though neither the Dragon children nor their families are inherently different from other children and families, the belief in the prophecy of success and the ensuing investment become self-fulfilling,” the researchers concluded.

How does this translate into the outlook for 2024?

According to the paper, the number of live births increased by 289,224 in 2000 compared to 1999, and by 935,854 in 2012 compared to 2011. This may suggest a possible uptick in births his year.

Further, the increasing number of deaths in China in 2022 was also linked to the Covid-19 pandemic. At the end of that year, China eased its Zero-Covid policy of strict lockdowns that were applied after the detection of only a few cases. It was believed that community transmission of the disease did not take hold in the country for long due to the policy. It slowed the building of the body’s natural immunity against the virus.

This year, the impact of Covid-19 on deaths will likely be lower. But the overall trend of a low fertility rate, that is fewer births per woman in the population, could continue. Some other countries in Asia and a few in Europe are also seeing lower births, with couples opting out of having multiple children or children at all. It is due to a range of factors – the increasing education levels of women over time, high costs of living, significant academic and job pressures, etc.