Can US pressure on India force Putin to end the war in Ukraine? Here’s why it’s unlikely

India has said it finds the US argument “perplexing” (more on this later), and maintained that it will buy energy from wherever it gets the best deal.

“We have clearly stated that our objective is the energy security of 1.4 billion people of India,” Vinay Kumar, India’s Ambassador to Moscow, told the Russian news agency TASS.

But in the hypothetical scenario in which India does stop buying Russian oil, will Moscow be forced to make peace in Ukraine? Consider the following.

Tariff as ‘economic leverage’: the changing US position

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the West has imposed a raft of sanctions on Russia aimed at isolating the country from the global financial system, crippling its exports, and blunting its military edge, which, Western countries believe, will eventually bring President Vladimir Putin to heel.

While these sanctions may have hurt the Russian economy — after three years of war, Russia’s GDP is now 10-12% below pre-invasion trends, according to analysis by the International Monetary Fund — they have not succeeded in ending the war in Ukraine.

Until January, when there were targeted by sanctions imposed by the outgoing Joe Biden administration, Russia used a so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers to keep its oil trade flowing to consumers such as China and India.

Under the framework of the US-led sanctions on Russia, there is no blanket ban on the purchase of Russian oil — if the deals meet a price cap imposed by the West. From the beginning, the sanctions have been intended to curb Russia’s oil revenues while keeping energy flowing to global markets in order to prevent a spike in crude prices.

While Trump’s additional 25% tariff on India is apparently meant to squeeze Russian oil revenues, India has pointed out that the US had endorsed and encouraged the Indian purchase of oil from Russia in order to keep global markets and prices stable.

On Sunday, though, US Vice President J D Vance told NBC that Trump is applying “aggressive economic leverage” on the Russians through “secondary tariffs on India, to try to make it harder for the Russians to get rich from their oil economy”.

What New Delhi has indicated: national interest first

External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has said he is “very perplexed” by the additional 25 per cent US tariff on India because “it was the Americans” who said, “we should do everything to stabilise the world’s energy markets, including buying oil from Russia”.

In his interview to TASS, Ambassador Kumar said “the US decision is unfair, unreasonable and unjustified”, adding that the Indian government will continue taking measures which will protect the national interest of the country.

In a statement issued on August 6, the official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs had used this same framing.

India imports more than 85% of its total oil, and discounted Russian oil not only reduces this import bill but also allows it to diversify its energy sources.

“India has to decide whether ceasing to buy cheap oil from Russia is worth the hit that American tariffs will entail,” Nandan Unnikrishnan, distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation and one of India’s foremost Russia experts, had told The Indian Express earlier this month.

Jaishankar said on Saturday: “This (tariff) is being presented as an oil issue. But why I say ‘being presented’ is because the same arguments that have been used to target India have not been applied to the largest oil importer, which is China, and have not been applied to the largest LNG importer, which are the European nations”.

If India does stop buying Russian oil: the view from Moscow

Experts have said that the US strategy to force Russia to end the war by applying pressure on India is unlikely to work. There are two things to consider here.

One, India is not the only country that is buying Russian crude; it is not even Moscow’s biggest customer.

According to data compiled by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, since 2022, China has bought 47% of Russia’s crude exports, followed by India (38%), the EU (6%), and Turkey (6%). This does not include oil products and LNG.

For the former, Turkey, at 26%, has been the largest buyer of Russian exports followed by China (13%) and Brazil (12%). Europe, at a whopping 51%, has been the largest importer of Russian LNG, followed by China (21%) and Japan (18%).

So, even if India stops Russian oil purchases, Moscow has other buyers it can rely on. China is the biggest purchaser of Russian fossil fuels – and it is unlikely that Trump will attempt to target Beijing with additional tariffs like he has targeted New Delhi. Click here to find out why.

Two, regardless of the economic impact, Moscow is still unlikely to agree to any deal it believes will be against its national interests.

“From a Russian perspective, they are fighting an existential threat. Ukraine becoming a part of NATO, meaning that Western countries could put their weapon systems and people on Ukrainian soil, is a red line for Russia,” Unnikrishnan had said. This means that economic pressure alone is unlikely to make Moscow compromise.

By almost all accounts, Russia is currently winning the war in Ukraine. Its military is on the advance, and Ukraine is fast running out of men to send to the frontlines. This position of strength is likely to make Moscow even more immune to economic pressure, at least in the short term.

As Unnikrishnan put it, “Putin may indeed agree to a ceasefire, but he will only do so if it suits Russia’s interests. Given the stakes for him and the state of the war, he is very much in the driver’s seat.”