Explained: What the delayed elephant census says about India’s 22,446 jumbos and their future

Elephants’ range: concentrated in Western Ghats, Northeast

The endangered Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is an endangered species. It has been on the IUCN Red List, which details the global conservation status of animal, fungi and plant species, since 1986.

As per official data, India accounts for the largest population, over 60%, of the endangered species. The largest mammal found in India’s forests, elephants have been counted every five years since the launch of Project Elephant in 1992.

The latest estimation exercise was initiated in 2021-22. It was held simultaneously with the tiger count estimation for the very first time in order to harmonise estimation methods. The delay in results was due to additional sampling coverage in elephant occupied areas of Northeast, as the initial data was deemed limited compared to the distribution of elephants in the region.

The results showed that the Western Ghats continues to be the home to the largest number of elephants, with 11,934 jumbos — more than half of India’s elephant population — found in this cluster. The North Eastern Hills and Brahmaputra floodplains hold an estimated 6,559 elephants, Shivalik Hills and Gangetic plains have 2,062 elephants, and Central India and Eastern Ghats 1,891 elephants.

A map of the population density of elephants in India. SAIEE, 2021-25

Among states, Karnataka continues to be home to the largest elephant population, 6013, followed by Assam (4,159), Tamil Nadu (3,136), Kerala (2,785), Uttarakhand (1,792), and Odisha (912).

Karnataka harbours a large population of elephants as there are diverse habitats ranging from dense Ghat forests to Deccan plateau landscape. The integrity of contiguous habitats acting as corridors is still high compared to the fragmentation seen in eastern-central India.

The Brahmagiri – Nilgiri – Eastern Ghats block is home of the largest sub-population in Western Ghats. It comprises the Mysuru Elephant Reserve, Nilgiri Elephant Reserve, Wayanad Elephant Reserve, Nilambur Elephant Reserve and Coimbatore Elephant Reserve.

Beyond numbers: challenges to elephant conservation

Compared to the 2017 numbers, the estimated population of elephants has dipped by nearly 18%, with the highest dip seen across the Northeast Region and Central India and Eastern Ghats region. Jharkhand and Odisha have seen a 68% and 54% drop, respectively, compared to the 2017 estimate.

The government has, however, said in the report that the current estimate is not directly comparable to earlier figures due to the change in methodology and protocol differences across estimation cycles. The latest SAIEE employed a methodology used to count tigers since 2006; the government has termed the population estimate as a “new baseline.”

That said, despite the variance in methodologies and the resultant change in estimates, elephants face some steep challenges in the form of habitat loss and degradation, and threats due to mining and the growing network of linear infrastructure such as railways, roadways, canals and power lines.

Qamar Qureshi, one of the lead scientists working on the estimation, warned that the trend of rising elephant numbers in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra’s Gadchiroli was a manifestation of the disturbances in Jharkhand and Odisha.

He explained that the population in Eastern Ghats and Central India was facing immense pressure due mining linked forest degradation, and unnatural deaths due to power lines, and railway tracks. Past studies have shown that even as this region holds less than 10% of the country’s elephant population, it is responsible for nearly 45% of all human deaths caused by elephants in India.

As per the latest figures, Chhattisgarh has seen a 82.6% rise in elephant numbers. “The population coming into Chhattisgarh is migrating from Odisha and Jharkhand due to disturbances caused by mining pressures and habitat degradation,” said Qureshi.

The estimation report also noted the knock-on effects of elephants moving out of Jharkhand to Chhattisgarh, and how they are now colonising old habitats in Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha, Maharashtra. Between 2017 and 2021-22, elephant herds have moved into Sanjay Dubri Tiger Reserve in Sidhi district, Bandhavgarh Tiger Reserve in Umaria and Kanha through Chhattisgarh.

These recent populations who have made new habitats their homes also pose a challenge to peaceful co-existence with humans. These newer populations are raiding crops, crossing human habitations and damaging property along the way. Managing large herds is also posing new challenges to the wildlife managers and field staff. Similarly, in Maharashtra, while traditional habitats exist in areas bordering Goa and Karnataka, now elephants are migrating to Gadchiroli from Chhattisgarh and even Odisha, forming new habitats.

In Assam, which has the highest pachyderm population in the Northeast, habitat fragmentation due to large-scale forest clearance in Sonitpur and Golaghat districts is a challenge. This is also increasing conflict with humans.