Study in US: Borrow loan or wait? Indian students weigh options amid growing uncertainty

Anti-immigration rhetoric, policy ambiguity, slowing entry-level hiring, and cost pressures have pushed students and parents to question if this is the right decision. Once considered the obvious choice, the question in students’ minds today is, Does going to the US justify the cost and uncertainty?

What’s Driving US Uncertainty

The anxiety is fuelled by several structural and political signals. Immigration has resurfaced as a contentious political theme. This has led to periodic unpredictability in visa outcomes, as we witnessed earlier this year, due to the visa pause.

Also Read | US universities saw 17% drop in enrolments from international students in 2025-26

Adding to the uncertainty is speculation about the future of Optional Practical Training (OPT), the 36-month work authorisation that has long been central to the ROI of a US STEM degree. Several proposals have been discussed, which, if implemented, would be detrimental to Indian students.

Since OPT is the bridge that enables practical experience, employability, and loan repayment, these discussions around changes signal instability and intensify risk assessments.

Also Read | US H1-B visa: Despite policy headwinds, these countries continue to draw Indian students

Hiring norms have also tightened, with a higher focus on skills. Indian students without practical experience or an industry-aligned portfolio face a steeper climb in securing OPT roles.

Rent, transport, insurance, and daily expenses frequently exceed university estimates, pushing actual expenses beyond what most families anticipate and complicating loan affordability.

The Real Story Behind Enrolment Trends

Paradoxically, Indian students continue to remain the largest international student group in the US, as per the Open Doors Report 2025. The story is in the fine print, as fresh enrolments have reduced by 17 % in Fall 2025, but overall numbers show an increase.

Also Read | US student visa policies in 2025: From stricter screening to H-1B fee exemption – a complete timeline

The growth seen is driven by Indian students on OPT extensions, not fresh enrolments. Fresh F-1 visa issuances have also declined by 30-40 % over the past two cycles.

This means that the headline growth in Indian students in the US this year is largely driven by a sharp rise in OPT participation rather than an actual increase in new university enrolments.

Also Read | OPT hope, H1B hurdles: Indian students in US grapple with changing visa rules

In reality, fresh F-1 visas for Indian students fell significantly last year and have declined further this year.

OPT counts represent students already in the US, and the surge may also reflect concerns about securing full-time roles after graduation. It’s important to distinguish OPT-driven growth from the true trend in new student intake.

The Loan Decision: Borrow Now or Wait?

All of this inevitably boils down to one of the most consequential decisions for Indian families- whether they should take an education loan or wait. The right choice depends on an evaluation of risk, return, and financial resilience.

Also Read | Indian students going to US for higher studies drop 44%, steepest fall since pandemic

Immigration uncertainty, a tighter job market, potential mismatch between academic programs and industry needs, and high living costs all influence the outcome.

The India-return scenario must be factored in. A student with a Rs 50 lakh loan typically faces EMIs in the Rs 56,000– Rs 62,000 range. If forced to return unexpectedly, this can consume 35–50 per cent of take-home pay, an extremely heavy burden in an early career.

The ROI Still Exists

Despite the uncertainty, certain US degrees continue to deliver strong outcomes. High-demand fields such as computer science, AI, data science, ML, cybersecurity, and robotics regularly offer early-career salaries between $90,000 and $135,000, making loan repayment feasible within two to four years under stable OPT rules.

Engineering disciplines outside CS generally require longer repayment horizons, and non-STEM degrees can take six to ten years.

Importantly, students must understand the true cost of study, which includes tuition, living expenses, insurance, deposits, and a realistic job-search buffer. For many, a two-year master’s degree at a mid-tier university now costs around Rs 92–95 lakh.

The full 36-month STEM OPT period materially improves employability; any reduction would lengthen repayment timelines. Financial planning must account for both outcomes: securing a US job or returning to India.

Under Section 80E, interest on education loans is fully tax-deductible for eight years, reducing effective borrowing costs. Secured loans also offer lower interest rates and flexible repayment structures.

A More Grounded, Prepared Approach to 2026

Not everything is moving in a negative direction. The proposed H-1B reforms, including the new $100,000 sponsor fee, as clarified, do not apply to F-1 students transitioning into H-1B status. American universities facing reduced enrolments are offering more scholarships, teaching assistantships, and fee waivers to attract strong international candidates.

The US still offers exceptional academic quality, strong career pathways, and long-term upward mobility, especially for students in STEM. Education loans continue to be a powerful enabler of this opportunity.

But 2026 requires informed decision-making: students should weigh risks honestly, model affordability even under an India-return scenario, and invest deeply in upskilling, project portfolios, and networking. The American dream is still alive; it simply calls for clearer preparation.

Mehra is the co-founder & CEO, GyanDhan, an end-to-end education enabler