Ahead of MoSPI revision, IMF retains ‘C’ grade for India’s GDP data series

“Going forward, regular benchmark revisions of national accounts, prices, and other key statistics should be conducted according to international best practices,” the IMF said in its annual staff report on India earlier this week on November 26.

Grades are given from A, B, C, and D. The IMF had given the C-grade to India’s national accounts statistics in its 2024 staff report. However, before that in 2023, it had not given a grade and only said while data provision is “broadly adequate for surveillance”, “upgrading and expanding statistics particularly in the real sector (e.g., national accounts, employment, and prices), would help the monitoring of economic and labor market dynamics and policy design”. It had added that the GDP series with 2011-12 as the base year “should be rebased as soon as feasible”.

The retention of the C-grade comes just months before MoSPI announces a new GDP series with 2022-23 as the base year as part of a major overhaul. The new GDP series, which is expected to see changes in methodology and incorporate new sources of data, will be announced at the end of February 2026 when data for October-December 2025 and the second advance estimate for 2025-26 as a whole will be published. “The authorities stressed the ongoing improvements in real sector statistics along with issues in the data adequacy assessment of current series,” the IMF said in its staff report.

“They also informed about significant progress on the work to update the national accounts and CPI methodologies, with rebased series expected to be launched in February 2026. Given these developments, the authorities considered that more favorable ratings would be warranted in the staff’s Data Adequacy Assessment for Surveillance, especially for the national accounts, including coverage and granularity. Further engagement with IMF capacity development is planned in the context of the national accounts and production indices projects,” the IMF added.

While the GDP data got a ‘C’ from the IMF, India’s price or inflation data received a B-grade. MoSPI is also in process of updating the Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation data based on the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2023-24. The current CPI series is based on the 2011-12 survey. While inflation data is usually updated every five years, the government had junked the results of the 2017-18 consumption survey citing data quality issues.

The IMF also gave a B-grade to India’s government finances, external sector, and monetary and financial statistics. This compares somewhat favourably to China. While China has also been given an overall B grade like India, it got a C for national accounts as well as government finance statistics.