Ukraine tries to make the case that it can win, citing recent strikes

Through it all, the Ukrainians’ message to the world did not change: We can win. Our strategy is working, if slowly. Just keep the weapons coming.

No one can say yet whether Ukraine might prevail against an invading Russian military with superior numbers and weaponry. And Ukraine’s pleas for weapons have become such a constant refrain that some in the West have tuned it out as background noise.

But this week, as it employs new long-range rocket systems to destroy Russian infrastructure, Ukraine is again trying to make its case to the world that it can defeat the Russians. And it is citing evidence.

Officials are pointing to successes like a recent strike in the town of Nova Kakhovka, on the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine, when Western-supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, hit a Russian ammunition depot, sending sparkling munitions flying in all directions like a lethal fireworks display.

A video published by President’s Office Head Andriy Yermak shows the U.S.-made HIMARS rocket launcher destroying a target in Ukraine’s south.

“Another Russian arms depot destroyed,” Yermak wrote.

Video: Andriy Yermak / Telegram pic.twitter.com/EsnH16E6Vg

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) July 17, 2022

Several days ago, a Ukrainian artillery volley struck a key bridge on the Dnieper that was a critical crossing point for Russian supplies. Analysts say the strike augurs the start of a counteroffensive in the south, with an eye toward recapturing the key city of Kherson.

On Thursday, Ukrainian officials said their forces had attacked more than 200 targets in the south using long-range missiles and artillery.

A Ukrainian soldier loads ammunition into a tank in the Kharkiv region on July 19, 2022. (Emile Ducke/The New York Times)

“Russia can definitely be defeated, and Ukraine has already shown how,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a speech to the Atlantic Council on Tuesday.

Despite the Ukrainians’ renewed optimism, military analysts and Western officials say that it’s far too soon to forecast a turn in fortunes and that a long slog seems likely. They caution against hanging too many hopes on particular weapons amid the chaos and fluidity of the front line.

“We are now achieving what we have not achieved before,” said Taras Chmut, director of a nongovernmental group aiding Ukrainian soldiers. “But there was no breakthrough at the front. There is no panacea, no magic wand, that will lead to victory tomorrow.”