Silent killer? Intensifying heatwave in England, Wales could cause nearly 600 deaths this week, scientists warn

According to The Guardian, Dr Garyfallos Konstantinoudis from Imperial College London said:

“This real-time analysis reveals the hidden toll of heatwaves and we want it to help raise the alarm… Heatwaves are silent killers.”

The forecasted 32°C heat in southeast England this weekend has been made 100 times more likely due to human-induced global warming, researchers said.

Who are at most risk?

According to the analysis, most of the projected 570 deaths between Thursday and Sunday are expected to claim lives of people over the age of 65. London and the West Midlands are expected to experience the highest mortality rates, with 129 deaths anticipated in the capital alone.

Dr Malcolm Mistry of LSHTM warned:

“Exposure to temperatures in the high 20s or low 30s may not seem dangerous, but they can be fatal, particularly for people aged over 65, infants, pregnant people, and those with pre-existing health conditions.”

People living in densely populated inner-city areas face elevated risks, made worse by poor ventilation and urban heat island effects.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued an amber heat-health alert, warning of increased deaths and pressure on health and social care services.

Experts: Just a few degrees can mean life or death

Prof Antonio Gasparrini of LSHTM talked about how even modest increases in temperature can prove lethal:

“When temperatures push past the limits populations are acclimatised to, excess deaths can increase very rapidly.”

The researchers estimate that the heatwave would not have produced such fatal conditions without human-driven global heating, which has boosted local temperatures by 2°C to 4°C.

Over 10,000 people have died from summer heatwaves in the UK between 2020 and 2024, according to UKHSA data.

Health professionals and climate experts alike are warning that such extreme heat events are only going to become more frequent and more severe. “We must stop burning coal, oil and gas if we are to stabilise our climate and prevent scores of preventable health issues, hospital visits and deaths,” said Dr Lorna Powell, an urgent care doctor in east London.

A recent report by the UK Climate Change Committee warned that annual heat-related deaths could exceed 10,000 by 2050 if global temperatures rise by 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Meanwhile, Swiss Re, a global reinsurer, reported that extreme heat now kills more people globally than floods, hurricanes, or earthquakes combined — claiming around 500,000 lives each year.

(With inputs from The Guardian)