If COP29, beginning Monday in the Azerbaijan capital, indeed delivers what it is supposed to — a strong finance agreement to enable enhanced flows of money for climate action — it could turn out to be the most important climate meeting since the one in Paris in 2015. Inadequate money is one of the biggest hurdles to enhanced climate action that is urgently required to contain runaway increases in global temperatures. COP29, the 29th edition of the annual climate conference, is supposed to agree on at least a ten-fold increase in the money that developed countries are mandated to make available. The agreement was never expected to have come easily. Developed countries, led by the United States, have been pushing to expand the ‘donor base’, meaning they want more countries — rich countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar or Singapore, or even China – to contribute to the enhanced pool. But the election of Donald Trump as next US President has cast a much bigger shadow on the success of COP29 than the mere differences in position of various countries over the finance agreement. The last time Trump got elected, in 2016, he had taken the US out of the Paris Agreement itself. Four years later, Joe Biden undid this decision. This time, fears are being expressed that Trump would withdraw America not just from the Paris Agreement but from the UN Framework Convention itself, the overarching structure under which global climate negotiations take place. Trump has been much less shrill on climate change during campaigning this time compared to 2016, though pulling out of the Paris Agreement again is very much on his stated agenda. A climate sceptic, Trump views the global climate architecture heavily tilted against the US, and something that gives China an unfair advantage in economy and employment. He has said he would do everything possible to correct this, including the development of oil and gas fields at home, something that is completely counterproductive to global climate objectives. The Paris Agreement goals of keeping global temperature rise within 2 degree Celsius, if not 1.5 degrees, from pre-industrial times, cannot be achieved without handsome contributions from the US, the second biggest emitter after China and the largest contributor to historical emissions. So far, it has delivered little. Its emissions cuts have been negligible, and financial contributions meagre. But there are hopes of it improving its performance, as long as it is within the system. If Trump decides to walk away again, the climate targets become meaningless. America’s great utility within the climate architecture is also its unmatched ability to mobilise global financial resources. Its role is crucial to the success of COP29. Trump has not made any remarks on climate change after his election, but his known scepticism, and past record, hangs heavy over the talks here. The finance agreement that Baku is trying to stitch together is not just about a ten-fold increase in the quantum of financial flows – from US$ 100 billion each year that developed countries are currently obligated to raise to at least a trillion dollars a year from 2026. That is just the headline statement. Baku is supposed to deliver a comprehensive package on finance that is expected to result in greater transparency and better access to countries that need it the most. “COP29 should not only focus on raising the quantum of climate finance but also improving its quality. Climate finance must be consistent, convenient, catalytic, and credible. No developed country has delivered 100 per cent of its pledged climate finance. As we debate the New Collective Quantified Goal, the question is not just how much is needed, but how reliably it will be delivered,” Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water, said.
