Strongman Rajapaksa faces a fight from old friends as Sri Lanka votes tomorrow

Yet, all this does not appear to have deterred Sririsena, the former health minister, who now enjoys the support of a number of opposition parties, and minority groups that constitute around 32% of the vote who have joined hands in a bid to defeat Rajapaksa. Even the Sinhalese-majority provinces, once considered strongholds of Rajapaksa, are now divided between the two contenders.

A political analyst in Colombo finds shades of India’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the opposition bloc that has lined up against Rajapaksa. “Maybe, the only difference here is that Rajapaksa is not Narendra Modi. But Sirisena also lacks a clear-cut action plan other than the anti-corruption slogans. In fact, Sirisena once used to boast of leading a military campaign against the Tamil Tigers and is known for his mediocrity,” says a professor in Colombo University, who did not wish to be named.

This time though, Sirisena has projected himself as a leader of the rural masses, vowing to rid the country of the one-man, one-family rule of Rajapaksa, and to cut the presidency down to size within 100 days of his election.

On the other side, it’s not as if Rajapaksa is ready to admit defeat, either. “People have betrayed nations from time immemorial. Over the years opportunists had turned traitors, caring two hoots for their motherland. Sri Lanka is certainly no exception,” wrote the state-owned Sunday Observer in its editorial, calling Sirisena “a traitor”.

The 69 year old Rajapaksa’s aides admit that it’s a tight race this time, but maintain that the President is still popular among the Sinhalese majority, despite reports to the contrary. “Nothing will stand in the way of Rajapaksa. He will come back,” says an aide who is part of a PR campaign that was launched much before the presidential elections.

After that dominating win in 2005 with a majority of more than 1.86 lakh votes, and again in 2010, Rajapaksa’s fall —- if you can call it that —- began early in 2012 when his government faced massive protests from railwaymen, prisoners, government employees and students. Besides, a large number of attacks by radical Buddhist groups on Muslim and Christian communities were widely perceived as being supported by the government.

Most importantly though, Rajapaksa was widely criticised for making his government a family-run show: the President himself held at least five key portfolios while his brothers Gotabhaya headed defence and urban development, Basil decided economic policies, and Chamal Jayantha was speaker of the parliament. Rajapakse’s son Namal is an MP and a potential successor.
All that apart, a large majority of the Muslim and Christian population, and even Buddhists, have extended their support to 63 year old Sirisena. To top it all, the main Muslim party backing Rakapaksa, Sri Lanka Muslim Congress (SLMC), defected to the opposition last week.

Yet, all is not lost for the President.
Suresh Premachandran, a Tamil National Alliance (TNA) MP from Jaffna district, told The Indian Express that many Tamils have been left disturbed by Sirisena’s statements last week when he ruled out the possibility of giving more powers to provincial governments and said that he would not withdraw the army from the northern provinces.

However, Premachandran did acknowledge that “there is a strong anti-Rajapaksa wave across the country and people want to overthrow this corrupt government”.

Then again, a Christian leader from Mullaitivu said the increased roadblocks and deployment of army on polling day will lead to intimidation and a lesser turnout of voters, which is likely to favour Rajapaksa.