July most likely to be the hottest-ever month

Tourists use umbrellas to shelter as they visit Rome, July 22, 2023. (AP Photo)

Several days of July were measured to be the hottest days ever, with the global average daily temperatures going past 17 degrees Celsius for the first time. It started with July 3 to July 6 breaching the 17 degree Celsius mark for the first time, and then almost every day in the next three weeks has remained well above the previous highest recorded temperature of 16.8 degrees Celsius.

“This means that the first three weeks of the month were the warmest three-week period on record. During the first and third weeks, temperatures also temporarily exceeded the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold above preindustrial level, a limit set in the Paris Agreement,” a statement from the Copernicus Climate Change Service, run on behalf of the European Commission, said.

The hottest of these was July 6, when the average daily global temperature was recorded to be 17.08 degrees Celsius, the statement said.

It said that the global mean surface air temperature for the first 23 days of July was 16.95 degrees Celsius. “This is well above the 16.63 degree Celsius recorded for the full month of July 2019 which is the current hottest July and hottest month in the… records. It is almost certain that, in due course, data will show July 2023 to have broken both these records,” the statement said.

A 17 degrees Celsius temperature does not appear to be particularly warm but this is the global daily average and not over individual places, some of which routinely record temperatures around 50 degrees Celsius, sometimes even more. Average global temperature is the average over both land and ocean, including the ice sheets in the polar region and the snow of the high mountains, where surface temperatures are well below zero degrees Celsius.

Average temperatures over oceans are around 21 degrees Celsius, and oceans occupy nearly 70 per cent of the earth’s surface. The Antarctic Ice Sheet, where temperatures can easily drop to -50 degrees Celsius, covers about 8.3 per cent of the earth’s surface while the Greenland Ice Sheet, which includes the Arctic region and North Pole, constitutes about 1.2 per cent. The glaciers and ice caps in the mountains are estimated to account for about another 0.5 per cent of the surface.

So, while there are places over land that often get incredibly hot, the global average is relatively cool.

The year 2023 is also expected to break previous records. Till now, 2016 has been the warmest year on record. The average annual global temperature that year was 1.28 degrees Celsius higher than the pre-industrial times. The World Meteorological Organization has predicted that it was nearly certain (98 per cent probability) that at least one of the next five years (2023 to 2027) would turn out to be warmer than 2016. The way 2023 is turning out, the 2016 record could be broken this year itself.

A boy wearing a military uniform drinks water as he and his schoolmates take part in a tour activities on a sweltering day in Beijing, July 25, 2023. (AP photo)

June 2023 has already beaten previous records for the month, and become the warmest June ever. Before that, this year’s March was the second-warmest ever, May was the third warmest ever, and February and April the fourth warmest ever. July is on track not just to emerge as the warmest July, but the warmest month ever.

Scientists say the full impact of this year’s still-developing El Nino, which is known to have an overall warming impact on the planet, is yet to be realised.