What next for Aam Aadmi Party, Arvind Kejriwal? As party says he will run govt from jail, why it is easier said than done

“There is no plan to change the Delhi Chief Minister or the party chief. We have said before that if he is arrested, he will govern from jail and that stance has not changed,” said Delhi Health and Urban Development minister Saurabh Bharadwaj.

That’s easier said than done given the new battlelines – political and Constitutional – that are being drawn.

For Kejriwal to remain CM, he would need some respite from courts. This is key because for a string of opposition ministers who were arrested, repeated denial of bail has been a gentle nudge to resign.

For Tamil Nadu Minister Senthil Balaji, arrested by the Enforcement Directorate in June last year, the Madras High Court in January asked how he could continue to be a minister 230 days after being arrested. Even within AAP, Manish Sisodia and Satyendar Jain tendered their resignations after being denied bail.

But if Kejriwal holds on to his post, the Centre could cite that to frame new constitutional challenges. For one, a Chief Minister governing from a jail could trigger questions of “failure of constitutional machinery in state” which could be used to argue for President’s rule under Article 239AB of the Constitution.

Delhi’s unique constitutional scheme allows for the Lieutenant Governor to report to the President to suspend the operation of Article 239AA which governs Delhi if the LG is satisfied that “a situation has arisen in which the administration of the National Capital cannot be carried on in accordance with Article 239AA” or “that for the proper administration of National Capital Territory it is necessary and expedient to do so.”

The Delhi Assembly’s tenure ends February 2025 but invocation of President’s rule can mean that the Centre can take control of Delhi.

But who will, before an all-important Lok Sabha election, the first one that AAP is contesting in an alliance, lead the party is the political question?

Even though it has an overwhelming majority in the Delhi Assembly — AAP has 62 of 70 MLAs — there is no clear answer.

This is not only because nearly all of its most senior leaders — Arvind Kejriwal, Manish Sisodia, Satyendar Jain and Sanjay Singh — are in jail but also because the Chief Minister is the glue that holds the party together.

The next biggest leader that the party has is Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, who is also facing a crucial test in Punjab, where AAP is contesting on all 13 Lok Sabha seats, and stands against its alliance partner in Delhi — Congress as well as BJP and Akali Dal. In Delhi, the leadership includes Ministers Gopal Rai, Atishi and Bharadwaj.

What the AAP faces now, party insiders said, is not just a crisis of leadership but also a test of loyalty.

“We know how BJP has broken party after party over the last few years. With Kejriwal behind bars, these efforts will only become more strident. What the party needs at this hour is a leader who can take charge but who that is going to be remains a big question mark,” the leader said.

“The party’s fate is tied directly to that of Kejriwal. One has to remember that the party is barely 11 years old. AAP is a young party with young leaders. When an attack of this sort is made, the very foundations are tested. This is that moment for AAP,” he added.

Many party leaders, however, believe that the party has the resilience and depth to tide over. “Parties with core strength do not stop existing at a time of crisis. We have stood against the BJP’s tactics all these years and will continue to do so,” Bharadwaj said.

The genesis of AAP lies in the 2011 anti-corruption movement that started from the narrow lanes of Jantar Mantar, before shifting to the expansive Ramlila Maidan, and eventually led to the demise of the Congress in Delhi. Then, Kejriwal shared the stage with social activist Anna Hazare, Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav, Manish Sisodia, Kumar Vishwas, Sanjay Singh and Gopal Rai.

In 2012, when the decision to form the party was taken, the posters carried photos of all except Hazare, who was against the idea. Of those who launched the party, only Gopal Rai, who is the head of the party’s Delhi unit and a Delhi minister, remains.

Another line of thought in AAP is that it is the BJP that has taken a risk.

“It is AAP’s history that whenever it is faced with a crisis, it emerges stronger. This party’s obituary had been written countless times, only to be erased. The BJP has taken a risk by arresting a chief minister who has won not one, but three elections in the country with an overwhelming majority (twice in Delhi and once in Punjab). It is the people that BJP has to answer to now,” Bharadwaj added.

On apprehensions that President’s rule will be imposed in Delhi if the CM tries to run the government from jail, Bharadwaj said: “It is a possibility but eventually the BJP has to come back to the people. They have arrested someone who has been chosen by the people of Delhi to lead them. They have to be answerable to the people.”