Amid Uddhav vs Shinde battle of attrition, two Senas eye rival’s discontents to gain upper hand

Earlier, Uddhav and his several colleagues had also made similar claims, saying that those who left the parent party were “repenting” their defection.

CM Shinde has dismissed such claims as “wild imagination” and “wishful thinking” of the Uddhav Sena.

His faction’s minister Deepak Kesarkar said, “Several MLAs and MPs who have remained with Uddhav Thackeray are actually waiting for the right opportunity to switch sides. They will quit Uddhav Sena and join Shinde-led party before the 2024 elections.”

Another Shinde Sena minister even claimed that “After such an exodus, only Uddhav Thackeray and Aditya Thackeray will remain in Shiv Sena (UBT).”

Amid these claims and counter-claims, the point remains that there has been a perceived unease in the Shinde Sena ranks, with its several leaders, including ministers, often complaining about not getting their dues in the coalition government with the BJP. A growing sense of having to play a “secondary role” in their government has been a common refrain among its MLAs and MPs.

In June 2022, Shinde had raised the banner of revolt against the then undivided Sena, joined by 40 of the party’s total 56 MLAs, which led to the collapse of the Uddhav-led Maha Vikas Aghadi government. Thirteen of the total 19 party MPs (including one from Diu Daman) also switched to Shinde faction, leaving the Uddhav camp with just 16 MLAs and 7 MPs.

In the run-up to the high-stakes 2024 elections, the power struggle, marked with leaders’ switchovers, between the rival Senas for dominance and consolidation would intensify.

Senior BJP leader and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis said, “There is massive unrest within the Uddhav Thackeray party. There are three to four leaders who are responsible for it.” Although he refrained from elaborating on his claim, he added, “The unrest will culminate in more shockers. And it will be in public soon. Why should I speak now.”

Observers feel that uncertainty would continue to grip both the Sena factions, with neither Shinde nor Uddhav in a position to vouch for their legislators’ moves.

Officially, the ruling coalition partners have decided to contest the coming Lok Sabha and Assembly polls together, with all the MLAs and MPs of the Shinde Sena being keen to contest the polls from their constituencies. However, the seat-sharing between the BJP and the Shinde Sena would be a tricky affair, with both allies expected to engage in tough negotiations and hard bargaining over it.

Shinde Sena MP Gajanan Kirtikar has already warned BJP not to take their support for granted, saying “We want to stake our claims on 22 Lok Sabha seats and will not settle for less.” The total number of the Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra is 48.

There has been discontent in a section of the Shinde Sena since the Shinde-Fadnavis government took the reins as only nine of its MLAs could get ministerial berths. Even some of the Shinde Sena MPs have been upset with the state of affairs, with one of them saying, on condition of anonymity, that “We feel empowered to be in association with Modi-led BJP. But we have no say in deciding the projects or seeking higher financial allocations for our constituencies.”

The BJP leadership has sought to steer clear of the battle between Uddhav and Shinde. A senior BJP functionary said, “Why should we get into their fight. Our concern was to teach Uddhav Thackeray a lesson. We exploited unrest within the Thackeray party when Shinde revolted to our advantage to bring down MVA government. Our work was completed.”

The BJP has however also sought to empower the Shinde Sena to checkmate the Uddhav Sena. State BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “We are preparing for all 48 Lok Sabha and 288 Assembly seats… Irrespective of constituencies where Shinde faction’s candidates contest, we will lend them our support to help them win against their MVA rivals.”

The two Senas have continued to stake their respective claims over the legacy of Sena founder and Uddhav’s father, Bal Thackeray. To mark the party’s foundation day on June 19, both of them are gearing up to hold their shows of strength.