Amid talk of change, why Haryana poll verdict today is important

The Haryana verdict will also reveal whether the Opposition’s footprint is increasing in the Hindi heartland, which has been an impregnable fortress for the BJP for a decade. The Congress captured Himachal Pradesh two years ago and in the just-held Lok Sabha polls, it, along with ally Samajwadi Party, seriously dented the BJP’s hold in Uttar Pradesh that is known to determine national fortunes. Neighbouring Delhi and Punjab are anyway being ruled by the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).

The desire for change in Haryana was palpable this time, making it a “takkar (contest)” even in some of the BJP strongholds, such as the Ahirwal region and the GT Road constituencies. Many articulated this “chah (desire)” in different ways. “In marketing, you are looking for something new all the time,” said a driver at a roadside dhaba in Badshahpur constituency in Gurgaon district. “People have got tired of the old messages … It is like seeing a movie for the sixth time.”

The internal surveys of the political parties had the same story to tell, mirroring the exit polls. One by the BJP concluded, according to sources, that the Congress was likely to get 60 seats, the BJP 20, and the regional parties and independents 10 between them, plus or minus two. Anti-incumbency brought on by 10 years of BJP rule, the unpopularity of Manohar Lal Khattar, and the inability of his successor Nayab Singh Saini to improve the situation in the short time he had provided the Congress with a fertile ground.

This time, the Jats in Haryana, who comprise around 25% of the electorate, appear to have got behind the Congress unlike in the past when they were divided between the grand old party and regional outfits, right from the days of Choudhary Devi Lal.

How the mood started to shift

The mood in Haryana started to turn against the BJP with the farmers’ agitation against the now-scrapped three farm laws, with the protests dominated by Jats who had been aggrieved with the BJP for choosing Khattar, a Punjab Khatri, as CM in 2014. The wrestlers’ protests last year against the alleged sexual harassment by former BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh heightened the Jat angst against the BJP. The fight of their “chhoris (girls)” Vinesh Phogat, Sakshi Malik, and others became a battle not just for justice for the wrestlers but also for restoring Jat honour.

Today Phogat, who contested from Julana on a Congress ticket, has emerged as a new icon not just for young women in the state and across India but also for the otherwise male-dominated Jat community. When she spoke with authority to a meeting mostly of men hanging on every word of hers, it bespoke a social change coming in Haryana’s society. Clearly, Jat anger — “Jat har cheez danke ki chot par kehta hai (A Jat always speaks loud and clear) — helped create a pro-Congress sentiment.

The campaign showed signs of a weakening of regional parties Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannnayak Janta Party (JJP). Is it their weakening that is helping the Congress, or is it the Congress’s revival that is weakening the regional parties? The results may provide some answers.

On the other hand, the non-Jat consolidation in favour of the BJP that brought it to power in 2014 and 2019 was not as compelling this time. The Jat versus non-Jat divide has influenced Haryana politics for decades, first authored by former CM Bhajan Lal. But this time around, the battle lines appear to have been shaped by anti-incumbency, with non-Jat communities also talking of change.

The Dalit factor

Dalits have emerged as the X factor. Though Haryana politics has been dominated by Jats, a section of Dalits — SCs add up to around 21% of the population — and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) swung to the Congress in the Lok Sabha polls. The party, as a result, won five of the 10 Lok Sabha seats, halving the BJP’s 2019 tally.

Every party has been reaching out to Dalits, including the Jat-dominated regional outfits that tied up with Dalit parties. If the Congress makes it, the Jat-Dalit tension could beset its government. At a Dalit basti in Sohna constituency, a major part of which is in Gurgaon district, a group going to vote for the Congress made a case for the party’s Sirsa MP Kumari Selja as CM. Selja is a Dalit and being a woman will have its advantages.

They were already looking forward to who would lead the government and were clear that had Selja “continued to sit at home” — which she did for almost two weeks — “the BJP would have won”. They fear a return to “Jatshahi (dominance of Jats)” if Bhupinder Singh Hooda becomes the CM.

Selja has thrown her hat into the ring along with Hooda and Randeep Singh Surjewala. All of them have said the high command would take the final call but many voters, including the Dalits of Hari Nagar, suspect that the high command had already made up its mind. Hooda, who has a vice-like grip on the state unit, had his way in candidate selection.

Even If Hooda is again elevated to the top job, he may not be able to enjoy the unbridled power he did during his decade-long rule from 2005 to 2014. This is because Narendra Modi is in power in Delhi and Rahul Gandhi’s stock has gone up. Hooda has even tried to strike a reassuring note and promised an inclusive government of all the “36 biradaris”. At one time, he also spoke of having “four Deputy CMs”.

The Dalits of Hari Nagar suggested a way out of the Congress’s problem if Hooda has to be made CM: an implementable power-sharing formula so that “Hooda Selja ki bhi sune aur unki (Selja) bhi chale (Hooda listens to Selja and takes her views on board)”.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 11 Lok Sabha elections. She is the author of How Prime Ministers Decide)