The “kadak” winter of January 2023 has brought a little bit of warmth for the Opposition. Whether this is just a seasonal aberration or could lead to a more definite climate change, only time will tell. The week that went by started with a phenomenal response to Shah Rukh Khan’s film, “Pathaan”. There is nothing unusual about a Bollywood film either being a chart-buster or bombing. An enthusiastic student in Delhi explained the possible reasons for the success of the film. “It was the old Shah Rukh to be seen, the film has a nationalistic theme, it is about a RAW officer working for the country and there is Deepika Padukone.” But there was an additional something to the SRK success. Most significantly, Modi advised BJP members at the party’s national executive meeting last month not to make “unnecessary remarks” about films. This was surprising, but then the PM is quick to sense the popular pulse. Information and Broadcasting (I&B) Minister Anurag Thakur followed up the PM’s advice with stronger words. He condemned the “boycott culture” targeting films and said it vitiated the atmosphere when India was trying to build on its soft power. Was there an underlying sympathy for Shah Rukh Khan over the treatment meted out to his son, who was kept in jail last year in a dubious drug case? Was the reaction to attempts made to encourage Hindu actors at the expense of, the three Khans — Shah Rukh, Aamir, and Salman — who have dominated Bollywood for years? Is a fatigue factor setting in around the Hindu-Muslim conundrum amongst sections of people? Did this shift in mood have anything to do with the reassertion of the SRK euphoria? Shah Rukh Khan obliquely hinted at this when at the press conference he addressed in Delhi he chided his associate for reeling off figures of the hundreds of crores of rupees the film raked in in the first three days. This was not about money, he said, this was about receiving “love” and giving love. The second straw in the wind was seen in the Srinagar skies. Rahul Gandhi’s photograph in Srinagar at the end of the Bharat Jodo Yatra, speaking to the assembled gathering under snowfall was an emblematic political photo. Not only because Rahul identified himself with the Kashmiri Pandits, calling his journey to Kashmir a “homecoming”. Or identifying with the suffering of the people of J&K by invoking his own pain, when he heard about the violent death of his grandmother Indira Gandhi and his father Rajiv Gandhi. What was surprising was the people who came out of their homes spontaneously to greet Rahul Gandhi, walk with him, or cheer him on. And for people to welcome, or at least not oppose, a national leader hoisting a flag at Lal Chowk also showed that the ground may be shifting in J&K. “The people of Jammu and Kashmir who came out (to greet him) did not see him coming as the representative of Delhi but as the representative of their sentiment,” National Conference leader and former CM Omar Abdullah told me. Instead, Rahul Gandhi was “taking Delhi to task for its shortcomings”. Even though the Congress did not go as far as they wanted — that is, call for the restoration of Article 370 — Abdullah said Kashmiris might have to make allowances for the compulsions of the Congress “if we expect it to take on the BJP in the rest of the country”. Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) chief and former CM Mehbooba Mufti also told me that her participation in the Bharat Jodo Yatra was “not about electoral politics” but because “someone is standing up to the communal forces and calling a spade a spade … Kashmir is the first target of those wanting to create a Hindu Rashtra.” And “we acceded to Gandhi and Nehru’s India, not to what’s happening today”. That Mehbooba Mufti and Omar Abdullah — mainstream politicians of J&K and old adversaries who had been keeping a low profile — walked with Rahul Gandhi on the streets of Srinagar — Omar in a white T-shirt similar to that of Rahul — and atop his car reflected an unfreezing of the political impasse in J&K after the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019. It had shrunk the political space in the Valley, leading to anger and sullenness. There was interestingly no blowback from the BJP. Equally significant, the government did not stop, under one pretext or another, the Yatra from going to Jammu and Kashmir. The third setback to BJP — and a possible fillip to the Opposition — came in the form of Gautam Adani, seen to be close to the ruling establishment. His proximity to power is seen as a reason behind his meteoric rise to become the third-richest man in the world. But the Hindenburg report has accused him of using fraud and manipulation to acquire his wealth and Credit Suisse has refused to accept Adani bonds as collateral. The manner in which the Adani Enterprises FPO was subscribed raises charges of cronyism. It is the market that gave credence to the allegations against him and his stocks went into a free fall, wiping out more than $100 billion (over Rs 8 lakh crore) of his companies’ wealth. Can the Adani story make a difference to the 2024 story? The Government broke its silence Friday with Union Finance Minister saying both LIC and SBI were well in their comfort zone and the market would bounce back. Much will also depend on how the Opposition parties whip up the issue and play the game, with several Opposition states having Adani-financed projects. It is early days to predict how all these will play out. What can be said with certainty is this — the battle will intensify in the weeks to come, as the country moves towards nine Assembly polls and then general elections next year. But for the Opposition, suddenly, chinks of light have appeared and they can be seen in the mood change on the street, in the cinema hall, in Srinagar, and in the market.
