Modi push vs Rahul disconnect: Before the wipeout in North-East, how Congress blew it in Raipur

One of the many reasons why the BJP has held its ground in the three states is because it accorded the region the importance due to it. The Prime Minister has visited the seven sister states in the Northeast no less than 60 times in the last nine years. Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have invested time, effort, and money in the region..

This made a Naga elder say, “We did not know we were so important.” Another Naga, an academic, quipped, “We had never seen such an aggressive campaign before.” In his victory speech, Narendra Modi was evocative, “Purvottar naa Dilli ke dur hai na dil ke dur hai (Northeastern states are neither far from Delhi nor far from our hearts).”

Contrast this with the Congress’s attitude. Speaking about the election results, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge dismissively said, “Small elections in small states do not affect us much.”

During the campaign, Kharge made a brief visit to Nagaland and Rahul Gandhi addressed a rally in Shillong. Forget the Congress’s listless campaign, the party showed little inclination in the last five years to build on the support base it has had. In Meghalaya, it emerged as the single-largest party in 2018 with 21 seats. It was the Trinamool Congress, aggressively viewing new pastures, and not the BJP that took away the Congress’s MLAs.

The Congress tally fell to five Assembly seats in Meghalaya this time. It drew a blank in Nagaland, where even the smaller outfits did better. The Conrad Sangma-led National People’s Party (NPP) clocked five seats, and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) managed seven. India’s grand old party did get three seats in Tripura — like a consolation prize — thanks to its alliance with the Left that benefited it more than it helped the CPI(M).

What explains this frozen Congress? A lack of resources? A lack of will to fight, the lack of the staying ability? After the popular response to the Bharat Jodo Yatra, which made people look at the party with new eyes, why this?

The Congress blew an opportunity when it decided not to hold elections to the Congress Working Committee (CWC) at its recent Raipur plenary and went back to the old “ghisa pita” formula of leaving “it” to the Congress president. Even the G-23 members who had first called for elections in the party suddenly made a case for constituting the CWC by “consensus”. In other words, nomination by the party president and the Gandhi family.

The Congress had everything to gain from an election and little to lose. It is not as if elections posed a threat to Rahul Gandhi or the authority of the Nehru-Gandhi family. Rahul has emerged as the unchallenged leader of the party after the Bharat Jodo Yatra — his position no longer being questioned as was the case a year ago. At worst, an election to the CWC may have brought in a couple of people the Gandhi family — and Kharge — do not favour and thrown out a few they want to patronise.

But it would have taken the Congress’s fight against the Modi-led BJP a notch higher and helped create a “mahaul” against the ruling party, maintaining the momentum that the Bharat Jodo Yatra and the election of a non-Nehru-Gandhi figure as party president had created. Both moves had helped dilute the image the Congress has come to have of entitlement — that young India reacts to.

Even more worrying was the Congress’s argument why it didn’t want an election: that it would divide the party. That India’s oldest party should put forward such logic is both disappointing and dangerous. Particularly, when Rahul Gandhi is trying to make a case of the erosion that has taken place under the Modi government in democratic institutions.

Having said that, the Congress can take heart from its victory in three of the six bypolls that were held — Erode in Tamil Nadu, Sagardighi in West Bengal, which has shocked the TMC, and Kasba Peth in Maharashtra, a seat wrested by the Congress from the BJP that held it for 28 long years.

A cautionary word here for the BJP, which is riding high, after its success in the Northeast. If you read between the lines, the Northeastern states have this time turned more to the regional parties and identity politics — be it the impressive showing by the TIPRA Motha espousing a separate Tipraland, or the improved showing by Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) in Nagaland, and by the National Peoples Party (NPP) and the United Democratic Party (UDP) in Meghalaya.

The signal is clear — that they would like their distinct identity and the diversity of the region to be respected — even as parties tie up with the BJP to ensure their government remains stable and resources are forthcoming for development. The BJP, which tends to emphasise homogeneity as a way to unite India, will do well to take note of the message that is coming from the Northeast.

(Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections)