Behind Modi overtures to Pawar, Uddhav: checking ‘sympathy factor’, rising MVA, Assembly polls

Referring to Pawar’s statement, Modi, while addressing a rally in Nandurbar last Friday, called his party “nakli (fake) NCP” and Uddhav’s party “nakli Shiv Sena”, saying “chaar din baad Congress mai ja karke marne ki bajay, seena taan karke humare Ajit dada aur Shinde ji ke saath aaoo, aapke sabhi sapne poore ho jayenge. (Instead of merging with the Congress and dying four days later, join hands with Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde with pride, all your dreams will be fulfilled)”.

Apart from the Congress, both the NCP (SP) and the Sena (UBT) are key constituents of the Opposition INDIA bloc. In Maharashtra, the three parties are fighting the Lok Sabha polls together as part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, taking on the ruling Mahayuti coalition comprising the BJP, the Shinde Sena and the Ajit NCP.

Of the state’s 48 seats, the Sena (UBT) is fighting from 21 seats, the Congress 17 and the NCP (SP) 10. In the Mahayuti camp, the BJP is contesting 28 seats, the Shinde Sena 15 and the Ajit NCP four, with one seat allotted to the Rashtriya Samaj Party.

Commenting on the PM’s remarks, a senior BJP functionary said, “Modi is not someone who makes casual remarks. Every statement made by him is well-thought-out and with definite reasons.”

Some state BJP insiders believe that “Modi’s invite to Pawar and Uddhav to join the NDA is a political tactic to create confusion within their party workers who continue to be loyal to them”.

Senior BJP leader and Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis, however, said: “Modi’s statement on mergers should not be misinterpreted. It is not an offer but just a piece of advice. Both Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray are in a sinking boat. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, they are going to face unprecedented defeat.”

State BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “PM Modi’s statement was in response to Sharad Pawar’s remark that all regional parties would merge with Congress. So PM said, ‘Why Congress? Instead, return to your real NCP and Shiv Sena’….”.

Bawankule also said the BJP has always believed in expansion. “So, if anyone wants to associate with us accepting Modi’s leadership, there are no reasons to slam the door.”

Maharashtra is bound for a five-phase polls, with the first two phases involving the Vidarbha region mainly witnessing a fight between the BJP and the Congress. The subsequent phases in regions including Marathwada, western Maharashtra, north Maharashtra and Konkan would see the NDA taking on the Pawar NCP and Uddhav Sena as well.

Rejecting Modi’s advice, Pawar said he would never ditch the Nehru-Gandhi ideology and join hands with those who adopt an anti-Muslim stand.

The Uddhav Sena also reacted sharply, saying Modi’s comments betrayed the BJP’s “nervousness”. Uddhav said, “By now they (BJP) has realised the worth of Thackeray and Pawar.” He said people “dislike their dictatorial politics…their politics of breaking parties”, adding that his party’s strength was forcing Modi to hold road shows in Mumbai.

Uddhav Sena leader Sanjay Raut claimed that the BJP was on the back foot. “Or else”, he asked, “Why would someone who dismissed Uddhav Sena and Pawar NCP as nakli would like to associate with it?”

The Congress also echoed the views of its allies, underlining that Modi’s remarks reflected the BJP’s realisation that it would never be able to achieve its “Congress-mukt India project”. State Congress president Nana Patole claimed, “BJP has realised that it is losing the Lok Sabha polls. It is no longer confident of winning a majority. So, it has started reaching out to smaller parties.”

Over the last few years, Maharashtra politics has undergone a major upheaval, posing a complex challenge to the BJP in the current Lok Sabha elections, even as the Assembly polls are slated for October this year.

In June 2022, Eknath Shinde split the Sena with the BJP’s support, which led to the toppling of the Uddhav-led MVA government and the formation of the NDA government in the state. Although most of the Sena’s MLAs and MPs switched to the Shinde faction, the Uddhav Sena has continued to be combative, remaining a key player in the MVA.

In July 2023, Pawar’s nephew Ajit split the NCP too and led most of the party’s MLAs to join the NDA government. The 83-year-old NCP founder Sharad Pawar has, however, also remained defiant since, looking to rebuild his party while helping the MVA to mount a formidable poll campaign, which has been fuelled by perceived public sympathy for both Pawar and Uddhav in the state.

In their electioneering, both Pawar and Uddhav have been scathing against Modi, alleging that his “autocratic rule” posed a “threat” to India’s Constitution and democracy.

In his every rally in Maharashtra, Modi, too, has been attacking Pawar and Uddhav. He recently called Pawar a “bhatakti aatma (restless soul)”, which has apparently not gone well among the people given Pawar’s stature as one of the tallest leaders in the state. In another jibe at the NCP patriarch, Modi said, “When Pawar cannot handle his own family, how will he look after Maharashtra.”

Pawar has hit back at Modi to debunk his remarks, saying he has been restless for the welfare of people, especially farmers.

Some BJP leaders believe that Modi’s “soft gesture” urging Pawar and Uddhav to join the NDA was a bid to “neutralise public sympathy for them”.

The BJP has also been bracing for the Assembly polls, which might be a tougher challenge for the party, given the point that it is riding high on Modi in the Lok Sabha polls.

In the 2019 polls, the BJP and then united Sena were allies, who took on the Congress-NCP combine. The BJP and the Sena had won 23 and 18 seats as against the Congress’s one and the NCP’s four.

In the subsequent state Assembly polls that year, the BJP had bagged 105 seats and the Sena 56 as against the Congress’s 44 and the NCP’s 54. However, the BJP and the Sena had then parted ways following their tussle over the rotational chief ministership issue, leading to the formation of the Uddhav-led MVA government.