Meghalaya in numbers: BJP aims to break regional outfits’ hold but can it break through?

BJP and Congress

The BJP’s decision to go solo is a significant move for the party, considering its electoral performance in the state has not been particularly impressive so far.

Since 1993, when it made its debut in the Meghalaya Assembly elections, the party has contested six elections. However, its seat tally and vote share have remained dismal. The party contested the most seats (47) in 2018, winning only two. Its vote share saw an increase to 9.63 per cent. (see graph)

Meghalaya has two Lok Sabha constituencies — Shillong (held by Congress) and Tura (held by NPP) — and has a limited impact on national politics. But by contesting all 60 seats on its own, the BJP wants to expand its base on the ground.

Like the BJP, the Congress is also contesting all Assembly seats. The Congress has been the only national party to have posed a challenge to the regional parties that have traditionally held sway in the state.

The party had a moderate start in its first Assembly elections in 1972, when it won nine out of the 12 seats it contested. It then got a vote share of about 10 per cent. The Congress’s best performance was in 2013 when the party won 29 seats, with its vote share at 34.78 per cent. (see graph).

Once a hegemonic presence in the state, the Congress is now but a pale shadow of its past. An exodus of its legislators to the Trinamool Congress (TMC) last year has left the party without any of its 21 incumbent legislators. Almost all known faces have defected and it has been compelled to field first-time candidates this time around

The All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) and Communist Party of India (CPI) are in the fray but have not yet opened their accounts in the Assembly elections.

Regional parties and Independents

Since the first elections in 1952 when it was a part of undivided Assam to the last Assembly elections in 2018, regional parties have played an important role in Meghalaya politics. In the 1972 elections, the first in the state of Meghalaya, the All Party Hill Leaders Conference won the most seats ever with 32. The party performed well in 1978 and 1983 as well. In 2018, the National People’s Party (NPP) and United Democratic Party won 19 and six seats respectively.

Independents have always been key to Meghalaya politics. In 1972, they won 19 seats and obtained about 53.86 per cent of the vote share. But things have changed since then. In the last Assembly elections, only three Independents won with a 10.84 per cent vote share.

Like Nagaland, Meghalaya is among the states where the turnout of women voters has been more than men in the past several elections. It has been the pattern from the 1998 Assembly polls.

Despite this, the representation of women in the state Assembly has not improved. However, the number of women candidates participating in elections has seen an upward trend. Meghalaya is also among the states with a better sex ratio than the national average. It stood at 986 females per 1,000 males as per the 2011 Census as against the national average of 940 females.