THE ruling JD(U)-RJD-Congress alliance in Bihar teetered on the brink Thursday evening with intense speculation in political circles in both Patna and New Delhi that Chief Minister Nitish Kumar could cross over to the NDA again. Amid talk of a deepening rift, the RJD and JD(U) held separate meetings while BJP state president Samrat Choudhary left for Delhi to hold discussions with top BJP leaders. He was accompanied by former BJP deputy chief minister Renu Devi. While the RJD played down any such possibility, and there was no word from the Congress, INDIA bloc parties were bracing for the damaging blow should one of its tallest leaders exit. If Nitish crosses over, this would be the fourth time he would be switching sides. On the BJP side, at least three state leaders told The Indian Express that for the party, this would be a “win-win,” as it would not just be a morale booster for the BJP but also undermine the INDIA bloc at the national level. In the Bihar Assembly of 243, the RJD has 79 MLAs; followed by the BJP's 78; the JD(U)'s 45’ the Congress's 19, the CPI (M-L)'s 12, two each of the CPI(M) and CPI, the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular)'s four seats, and the AIMIM's one, plus one Independent legislator. With the HAM(S) already with the BJP, the two together with the JD(U) can easily replace the current Mahagathbandhan government. While tension within the Mahagathbandhan has been growing for a while, the speculation became stronger after Nitish Kumar Wednesday appeared to target dynastic rule while paying homage to Karpoori Thakur at his centenary celebrations. Though Nitish did not name anyone, his comments on Thakur not favouring his family unlike some today were seen, by RJD, as a swipe at its leaders Lalu Prasad and Tejashwi Yadav. The Karpoori Thakur link was particularly touchy as the BJP government just days ago awarded him the Bharat Ratna. Then on Thursday morning came the news that Nitish would not attend the January 30 Purnia rally of Congress leader Rahul Gandhi as part of his Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra, though the JD(U) had earlier indicated it would be present along with the RJD. Announcing that Nitish had other scheduled events that day, senior JD(U) leader and minister Vijay Kumar Choudhary said: "It is not necessary that all leaders in an alliance attend a meeting called by a partner.” Then, Nitish wrapped up a Cabinet meeting held within 20 minutes, after just taking up the three scheduled items on the agenda related to the coming Budget Session. Sources said there was evident tension between the CM and Deputy CM Tejashwi at the meeting. Later in the day, Lalu's Singapore-based daughter Rohini Acharya posted on social media platform X: "Samajwadi purodha hone ka karta wahi dawa hai, hawaon ki tarah badalti jinki vichardhara hai (One whose ideology changes with the direction of the wind claims to be the patron of socialism).” While Acharya later deleted her tweet, JD(U) national spokesperson K C Tyagi called it “unwarranted”. “It amounted to provocation,” Tyagi said, while claiming that Nitish's dynasty remark was meant only in the context of Karpoori Thakur's staunch stand against it. Asked if Nitish could switch to the NDA again, after having left it just one-and-a-half years ago, Tyagi said: "I have no idea. I can only say that things do not look good in the INDIA bloc, thanks to the Congress's high-handedness and obstinacy. The Congress is not willing to cede ground to regional parties where it is strong, and is demanding seats where the regional parties are stronger than it.” The senior JD(U) leader added: "West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee has unilaterally decided to contest alone, Delhi CM Arvind Kejriwal is also not conceding desired seats to the Congress. In Bihar, the Congress is demanding eight seats. The ideal thing for forging an INDIA bloc should have been a decision on seat-sharing first – something Nitish Kumar had been stressing on since the outset.” Sources in the BJP said that talks between the two sides had been on for the last few days. “But the condition from the BJP state unit was that Nitish should not insist on continuing as CM. However, our top leadership is conscious of what it is doing,” a senior leader from the Bihar BJP said. A senior BJP leader in the know of Bihar affairs said the party had been working on two fronts – the JD(U) crossing over and the BJP getting the CM post; or a split in the JD(U) if it didn't agree on a BJP CM. As per the leader, the BJP wanted Nitish to agree to move to the Centre with the promise of a plum post. However, other leaders said that the BJP is unlikely to insist on the CM post, at least until the Lok Sabha elections. According to BJP leaders, JD(U) and RJD relations have virtually hit a point of no return, with Nitish unhappy over the RJD refusing to even let it have the 16 Lok Sabha seats it currently holds. In the meetings they held separately Thursday, the RJD and JD(U) told their MLAs to stick in and around Patna. Sources said Bihar Governor R V Arlekar had also been asked to stay put in Patna for the coming few days. In Delhi, where the Bihar issue reportedly came up for discussions, top BJP leaders Amit Shah and J P Nadda were present along with former Bihar Deputy CM Sushil Kumar Modi and Samrat Choudhary. Asked about Nitish changing sides, Sushil Modi said: "We have no information. Whether in 2017 (when Nitish joined hands with the BJP last time) or now, common BJP workers have been against an alliance with Nitish. But if Central leaders take any decision, we will go by it.” - with inputs from Shubhangi Khapre, Mumbai
