Lok Sabha poll dates in: Why all eyes will be on these 10 regions

The Congress has so far announced 25 guarantees, building up on similar promises which, it believes, helped it notch up wins in state polls in Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka and Telangana. These include 5 ‘Nyay’ guarantees for youth, women and farmers each, and 10 more announced on Saturday. Most of these were unveiled over the course of Rahul Gandhi’s Manipur-to-Mumbai Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra.

Apart from the guarantee vs guarantee narrative, the issues which are likely to come up in the campaign are unemployment and price rise, which the INDIA bloc parties have been consistently raising; abrogation of Article 370, the Citizenship (Amendment) Act and the start of the process towards a Uniform Civil Code, all of which the Modi government has initiated since its 2019 win; the Ram Mandir consecration, which is fulfillment of one of the BJP’s core promises; electoral bonds data, released in the run-up to the polls and giving a clear indication of how money donations were influenced by power and the use of it; and farmers’ issues, with the recent protest set to make MSP a poll topic.

Against the above issues, these will be the 10 things to watch out for in the polls, region-wise:

1) BJP’s southern expansion

Of the 129 Lok Sabha seats spread across five states – Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh — and the Union territory of Puducherry, the BJP currently holds only 29 (25 of these in Karnataka, and 4 in Telangana). The rest are with the Congress and its allies, the Left, BRS, YSRCP and 1 seat each with the AIMIM and JD(S).

In the run-up to the elections, the BJP has focused on the South, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading the push. The party realises that it needs to make gains in this region, having saturated its performance in the Hindi belt, if it wants to come close to its target of 370 for the BJP alone, plus 400-plus for the NDA.

Significantly, when the Congress enjoyed similar dominance in Lok Sabha polls in the past, it had as much presence in the South as the North.

2) Hindi heartland, and will Cong drought end

The Congress was decimated in the Hindi heartland both in 2014 and 2019, resulting in the party plunging to its all-time low tally of 44 in 2014 and 52 in the last Lok Sabha elections. In 2019, the Congress could win only 1 seat each in Uttar Pradesh (Sonia Gandhi in Rae Bareli), Bihar (Kishanganj) and Madhya Pradesh (Chhindwara), which together account for 149 seats. Besides, the Congress could not open its account in Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, won 2 seats in Chhattisgarh, and 1 in Jharkhand.

This left the party with just 6 seats out of 225, spread across 10 states in central India.

The Congress hopes to do well in the South – on its own in Telangana, Karnataka (where it is in power), and Kerala (which it swept last time), and Tamil Nadu (where it has a strong ally in the DMK). However, this will not be enough if the party wants to make a dent in the coming polls. The most recent Assembly elections, where it suffered setbacks in the Hindi heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, were not promising.

The last two times, the Congress, while the second-largest party, could not win enough seats to get Leader of the Opposition post. It will hope to correct that, with at least 55 constituencies, and more.

3) UP, and impact of Ram Temple

The BJP won 71 of the 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP in 2014 (73, counting the NDA), and 62 (64 for the NDA) in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The Samajwadi Party, BSP and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) had stitched up a meaningful alliance in 2019, helping them dent the BJP dominance a bit. This time, the RLD is with the NDA, the SP is aligned with the Congress, which has not made up any lost ground in UP, and the BSP is contesting alone. That apart, the inauguration of the Ram Temple at Ayodhya, plus gains for the Hindu side at the disputed Kashi Vishwanath Temple-Gyanvapi Masjid complex, are expected to boost the BJP.

Can the BJP better 2014, or a stronger SP hold it back? That will be the thing to watch.

4) Will it be 2019 again in Bihar

With Nitish Kumar-led JD(U)’s re-entry, the NDA is back to its formidable combination in Bihar, which had last time helped it to 39 out of 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Along with Chirag Paswan’s LJP (R), this alliance brings together the upper castes, the non-Yadav OBCs, the EBCs and Dalit Dusadhs.

On the other side are the RJD, Congress and Left, with a largely Muslim-Yadav base, plus some EBC influence. However, young RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav has been drawing crowds with jobs as an agenda, beyond the party’s largely caste-based politics.

If he makes a dent in the NDA tally in Bihar, it might affect the BJP’s Mission 370.

5) CAA, and how it plays out in Bengal, Assam

The BJP has been gaining ground in Bengal, but is still nowhere close to dislodging the ruling Trinamool Congress as the main party. However, in 2019 too, no one expected the BJP to finish with 18 seats, just 4 behind the TMC’s 22.

This time, the BJP is hoping that the Sandeshkhali episode, leaving the TMC red-faced over allegations against its leaders, and its fulfilled promise of easing citizenship for refugees under the CAA will give it the kickoff it needs in Bengal. There are a huge number of refugees in Bengal from Bangladesh who expect to now become valid Indian citizens.

At the same time, the BJP’s opponents are hoping it will face blowback from the CAA in Assam. Here, the entry of immigrants is a sensitive issue, and protests against the CAA have already begun. However, the BJP points out that it won the Assam Assembly polls in 2021 even after the widespread anti-CAA protests of 2019.

In 2019, the BJP won 9 of Assam’s 14 Lok Sabha seats, while the Congress won 3 and the AIUDF 1. The Congress is part of a 15-party grouping, but both this regional alliance and the INDIA bloc have largely failed to come to an understanding in the state.

6) The Punjab puzzle

While the Congress was a force in Punjab till the last Lok Sabha elections, the Aam Aadmi Party dealt it a big blow in the 2022 Assembly polls. The Congress has not been able to get its divided house in order still.

However, what might help the two parties is that the BJP remains a relatively weak party in the state, with just an urban Hindu base. Rural Punjab, particularly Sikhs, have further turned away from the party over farmer issues – over which the Akali Dal also split from it.

In 2019, the Congress won 8 of the 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab, the Akali Dal and BJP 2 each, and the AAP 1. Can the Congress retain this hold, which will be crucial to its tally, or will the AAP make gains? June 4 will tell.

7) Maharashtra matters

Maharashtra has been in an endless churn over the last few years, with both its big regional players — Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party — undergoing vertical splits. The “recognised” factions of both are now with the BJP and in power. However, the more “recognised” leaders of the two parties – be it Uddhav Thackeray or Sharad Pawar – are part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi coalition, including the Congress.

Will the parties matter, or the leaders, could well decide how Maharashtra goes this time, with all bets out as the talks on both sides drag out.

In 2019, the BJP and undivided Shiv Sena in alliance won 41 of the 48 seats (BJP 23 and Sena 18), while the Congress-NCP alliance was reduced to just 5, with the Congress winning just 1 seat.

8) Reading Haryana changes

Haryana has also seen quite some churn in recent months, with the Jat unease with the ruling BJP seeing its latest reflection in the exit of sitting MP Brijendra Singh to the Congress. The BJP has tried to recalibrate its calculations with a government reshuffle, making an OBC the CM, and cutting off ties with Dushyant Chautala’s Jannayak Janata Party, whose Jat base might incidentally stay on now with him.

The BJP won all the 10 Lok Sabha seats in the state in 2019. However, the Congress is seen as having clawed its way back to some extent, playing on Jat and farmer anger, and the BJP might find it difficult to repeat its 2019 sweep.

9) The Andhra experiment

The BJP has tied up with Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and the JanaSena Party of Pawan Kalyan, and will contest 6 Lok Sabha seats in a state where it drew a blank in 2019. It has thus bet on anti-incumbency against the YSRCP government of Jagan Mohan Reddy, with the Assembly polls being held simultaneously in the state with the Lok Sabha elections.

10) Karnataka, and can Congress repeat 2023

The Congress made a strong comeback in the Assembly elections held in 2023 to return to power in the state, winning 135 of 224 seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won 25 seats out of 28 while the Congress won just 1. But apart from being in power in the state, the Congress has two regional heavyweights in Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar, who are capable of thwarting any BJP challenge.

The BJP is counting on the popularity of PM Modi, as well as the machinations of old warhorse and influential Lingayat leader B S Yediyurappa. The tie-up with the JD(S) may also help it get the Vokkaligas on board.