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One of the curious outcomes of the 2023 Karnataka Assembly polls is that the BJP retained its total vote share of 36 per cent in the state but ended up losing more than 40 per cent of its existing 116 seats in the Assembly.
The reason for the BJP winning only 65 seats with a 36 per cent vote share — unlike 2018 when it won 104 seats with the same voting percentage — is the fact that the high vote share has come from only two specific regions of the state — Old Mysore and Bengaluru — unlike 2018, when the vote share was from all over, and the fact that it has eaten into the JDS vote share in south Karnataka without winning seats.
A look at the region-wise breakup of seats won by the Congress, BJP and JDS in the latest polls, when a record 73 per cent of polling was registered, reveals that the Congress increased its vote share from 38 per cent (80 seats) in 2018 to 43 per cent to win 135 seats, while the JDS saw its vote share dip from 18 per cent (37 seats) to 13 per cent to win 19 seats.
The seven per cent difference between the Congress and the BJP’s vote share has resulted in a difference of 70 seats between the two parties.
The big Congress win has come on account of wins in Mumbai Karnataka region and central Karnataka, which were BJP strongholds in recent times, and emphatic wins in Hyderabad Karnataka, where the Congress always fared well, and the Old Mysore region, where JDS had typically ruled the roost.
In the Mumbai Karnataka region — which is a Lingayat belt where a large chunk of the single largest community in the state (17 per cent) resides — the Congress won 33 of the 50 seats, which is a reversal of the 2018 results when it won only 16 seats against the BJP’s 31.
In the Hyderabad Karnataka region, the Congress won 26 of 40 seats, which is an increase of five seats from the 21 it won in the region in 2018 while the BJP won 10 — a dip of three seats from 2018.
In the central Karnataka region, the Congress won 19 of the 23 seats, an increase of seven seats compared to 2018, while the BJP’s tally dipped to 4 from the 10 seats won in 2018.
In the Old Mysore region, which has 64 seats, the Congress put up an unprecedented performance by winning 43 of the 64 seats — 23 more than 2018. The BJP lost 11 seats in the region and the JDS 12 seats from their tallies of 2018.
The BJP’s best performance has been in Bengaluru where it won 15 of 28 seats, unlike 2018, when it initially won only 11 seats and the Congress won 15 seats. The party has also lost a bit in its strongholds in the coastal Karnataka region, winning only 13 of 19 seats unlike 2018, when it won 16 of the 19 seats. The Congress won six seats in the region this time — a gain of three seats from 2018.
Former Karnataka CM Siddaramaiah said the win for Congress was a result of a decision by the people of Karnataka for a decisive verdict. “The people of the state wanted to give the majority to a single party,” he said.