How BJP lost the Karnataka plot: Leadership confusion, muddled messaging, tottering unit, over-reliance on Modi

So Yediyurappa was brought back to be the face of the campaign along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, the BJP was ambiguous on whether it would retain Bommai or replace him with another face to lead its government in the event of its poll win. This uncertainty left the party cadre confused.

Similar confusion prevailed when the party decided to go for a generational change in the list of its candidates in a bid to neutralise the “anti-incumbency” factor against its government. Deciding not to field a number of veterans, including ex-CM Jagadish Shettar and senior leaders like KS Eshwarappa and Laxman Savadi, it dropped a slew of sitting MLAs and fielded 72 new faces. About eight disgruntled party leaders, including Shettar and Savadi, later defected to the Congress.

* Lack of clarity in messaging

The BJP prepared its campaign roadmap harping on development, with its leaders claiming that the party wanted to seek a mandate on its record of governance. However, it ended up on a shrill note over its Hindutva plank. By the first week of May, the BJP campaign pivoted to get centred around Lord Hanuman after the Congress’s reference to the Bajrang Dal in its manifesto came to light.

Interpreting the Congress’s promise to take stern action, including a ban on right-wing, divisive outfits like the Bajrang Dal, along with the Popular Front of India (PFI), as “Muslim appeasement”, the BJP tried to turn the focus of its campaign on polarisation. Since then, BJP leaders across the board, from PM Modi down to every local leader, targeted the Congress while chanting “Jai Bajrang Bali” in their rallies and campaigns.

Voters, on the other hand, were “upset and disappointed” that there were no credible voices from the party responding to their worries over price rise and joblessness, a party leader pointed out Saturday.

This was in contrast to the BJP’s earlier plan of not taking up Hindutva in its campaign as the party’s assessment of the ground realities, including through its surveys, had indicated that such issues would not work in a state like Karnataka. A number of party leaders had pointed out that issues with religious colour had no resonance, barring some pockets in old Mysuru and coastal Karnataka.

* Failure in war of narratives

While the Congress managed to set a narrative much ahead of the elections that the BJP government was “corrupt” and a “40 per cent sarkara”, the ruling party failed to counter it effectively. Some of the party leaders linked the BJP rout to this inability to come up with an effective response on time.

Besides, while the Congress succeeded in presenting a cohesive unit despite known differences between two its top state leaders, Siddaramaiah and D K Shivakumar, the BJP appeared like a divided house with senior leaders jumping the ship too. Some leaders even questioned the party’s move to latch on to the Bajrang Dal issue.

* Over-reliance on Modi

Despite recent experience in a number of states, Himachal Pradesh being the latest, showing PM Modi cannot do all the heavy lifting if the state unit is not cohesive and robust, the BJP fell back on him to pull this off in Karnataka too. Throughout the campaign, BJP leaders across the state waited for Modi to kick off his campaign to catapult the party into the pole position.

However, the Karnataka polls, like the Himachal polls in November last year, proved that the Modi magic will work only if the state unit gets its act together. The party skipped Bommai or his government’s report card in its audio visual campaigns, which mainly highlighted the Central government’s welfare schemes and Modi’s popularity. The party failed to read the voters’ message on the ground that they differentiated between the national and the state elections.

* Absence of second-rung leaders

The absence of a credible state leadership appeared to have severely undermined the BJP’s prospects in Karnataka. The party unit did not seem to have any leader other than Yediyurappa who enjoyed acceptability cutting across caste, communal and class lines in the state. However, given that Yediyurappa was himself not in the fray, its campaign lacked credibility.

The BJP is said to be facing this challenge in various parts of the country. Since 2014, the party has not been able to foster a strong leadership in states except in Uttar Pradesh and Assam, where Yogi Adityanath and Himanta Biswa Sarma, respectively, are firmly in charge. The party’s election campaigns and strategies even in states have been centered around Modi and his initiatives.