In both 2014 and 2019, the BJP-led NDA made a clean sweep of all the 25 Lok Sabha seats in Rajasthan. As 12 seats go to polls in the first phase on Friday, the Congress hopes to break that trend this time. The Congress is relying on anger among Jats, anti-incumbency and coalitions, while the BJP is banking on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s hold over voters, Ram Temple, abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, and a perception about India’s “powerful” image abroad, apart from consolidating its power through inductions of leaders from other parties. Of the 12 seats, at least three — Churu, Nagaur and Dausa — are likely to see a tough fight. In the remaining nine, the BJP is either comfortably placed, such as in Jaipur City and Bikaner, or has an edge, like in Ganganagar, Jhunjhunu and Bharatpur. In Churu and Nagaur, Jats have kept both the parties guessing. Both the BJP and Congress have fielded Jats from the two seats. In Churu, the Congress is hoping to tap into Jat anger over denial of BJP ticket to sitting MP Rahul Kaswan, allegedly at the behest of Rajendra Rathore, a Rajput, while the BJP has thrown its weight behind paralympian Devendra Jhajhariya. Kaswan, who has since left the BJP, is now the Congress candidate. The poll contest is being seen a Kaswan versus Rathore fight. In an attempt to put the spotlight back on its candidate, the BJP coined the slogan, “Dilli mein Narendra, Churu mein Devendra”, while Modi spoke about his “old relations” with Jhajhariya at a rally in the area. The non-inclusion of Jat leaders in the top three posts in the state — chief minister and two deputy chief ministers — is seen as one of the reasons behind the community’s anger towards the BJP. The party has been trying to counter this. Nationally, it has allied with the Rashtriya Lok Dal, and has been emphasising that Rajasthan Jat leaders have been appointed to several key posts, including Jagdeep Dhankhar as Vice President and Kailash Choudhary as Union Minister. It has also inducted Jat leaders from the Congress like Jyoti Mirdha last year, and Richpal Mirdha, Vijay Pal Mirdha and Alok Beniwal more recently. The BJP has fielded Jyoti Mirdha from Nagaur, while the Congress has left the seat for Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) chief Hanuman Beniwal. This is a reversal of their 2019 roles when Beniwal won the seat as the NDA candidate, defeating Mirdha, who was fielded by the Congress. Dausa, where State minister Kirodi Lal Meena has been in the news for snapping at some of his rallies and berating the audience, is likely to see another close contest. Congress leader Sachin Pilot has a hold over the region, especially among the youth and Gujjars. The BJP has fielded Kanhaiya Lal Meena against the Congress’s Murari Lal Meena. In Jhunjhunu, the contest seems evenly placed with the Congress banking on Brijendra Ola’s “clean” image versus BJP’s Shubhkaran Choudhary, who was in the news over his remarks that anyone not voting for the BJP was a deshdrohi (anti-national). In Jaipur City, the BJP is expected to win by a comfortable majority, so much so that Congress’s Pratap Singh Khachariyawas sounded dejected when his name was announced. In Jaipur Rural, which includes some urban pockets, BJP’s Rao Rajendra Singh may not be a strong candidate, but the party’s cadre is strong. Union minister Arjun Ram Meghwal seems comfortably placed in Bikaner, as does Swami Sumedhanand Saraswati (BJP) in Sikar, where the Congress has left the seat for CPI(M) candidate Amra Ram. The Left has been shrinking in the region; in the Assembly elections last year, Amra Ram polled just 20,000 votes from Danta Ramgarh, behind Congress and BJP candidates. While there will be consolidation of Congress and Left votes, their joint share in 2014 was just 29 per cent against Saraswati’s 46 per cent; in 2019, the BJP’s vote share jumped to 58 per cent, against the 38 per cent polled by Congress and Left. The Congress is banking on Jat anger in Bharatpur too, but the BJP has made all-out efforts to retain the seat, making it prestige battle as Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma hails from the area. The Jats of Bharatpur and Dholpur have been seeking inclusion in the Central OBC list. Sharma has assured that the state is pursuing the issue, and indicated that there will be positive results. The Congress has fielded Sanjana Jatav, 25, who lost the December Assembly elections by just 409 votes. In Alwar, the Congress has fielded Lalit Yadav, 34, who is taking on BJP heavyweight Bhupender Yadav. However, the Congress has faced a rebellion over Lalit Yadav’s candidature, with several leaders, such as two-time MP Karan Singh Yadav, leaving the party and joining the BJP. In Karauli-Dholpur, the Congress has fielded Bhajan Lal Jatav, who faces an uphill battle as he is originally from Bharatpur and has been contesting from there. The Congress’s Dholpur MLA Shobharani Kushwah has kept her distance from party programmes, adding to the party’s woes. In Ganganagar, the BJP has fielded Priyanka Balan, replacing five-term sitting MP and former union minister Nihal Chand Meghwal, who, unlike Kaswan, hasn’t rebelled and is supporting the party candidate. The Congress has fielded AICC secretary Kuldeep Indora, who was defeated in the Assembly elections earlier. Since this is a reserved seat, the Congress has been playing up Balan’s background as the daughter-in-law of a non-Scheduled Caste family, and is also banking on the factionalism within the BJP in the area. Meanwhile, political analysts pointed out that even if there is resentment against the BJP among Jats, the Congress may not be able to leverage this. Like its seeming failure to play up the perceived resentment against the Centre over the Agnipath scheme. Other factors will come into play, like the BJP’s well-oiled poll machinery as compared to the Congress’s old school campaign. Moreover, with 13 seats still left for April 26, the inductions have not stopped in the BJP or its allies. Some Congress heavyweights, former MPs and MLAs have already joined the BJP, including Mahendrajeet Malviya, Karan Singh Yadav, Lalchand Kataria, Rajendra Yadav, Khiladi Lal Bairwa, Richpal Mirdha and Vijaypal Mirdha. On Tuesday, both Rajasthan BSP MLAs were also inducted into Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena. Also, while the Congress performed well in several Assembly segments last year — in some Lok Sabha seats, it even has majority of the Assembly segments — this may not translate into Lok Sabha votes for the party, as has been seen in the past. The reason being that while voters may want to see a Congress government in Rajasthan, they may still prefer Modi at the Centre. Hence, months after forming a government in the state in 2018, the Congress lost all 25 Lok Sabha seats to the BJP-led NDA in 2019.
