In Gujarat, Congress watches minority votes slip away

The party’s vote share in several constituencies with a sizable Muslim population, some of which were once considered its strongholds, dropped almost 10 per cent in the Assembly polls.

The only Muslim legislator, Imran Khedawala of the Congress who retained Jamalpur-Khadia in Ahmedabad. (File)

One of the takeaways from the Congress’s debacle in the Gujarat Assembly election is that it no longer has the hold over minority votes like before.

Though Gujarat has never elected a lot of Muslim MLAs — the three who won in 2017 were the most to have entered the House since 1995 — the Congress used to bank on the minority vote in several constituencies. This pattern seems to have changed in the recent election, with the Congress not only losing the seats it had gained in the 2017 Assembly polls but also suffering losses in some of its bastions, many of which have a sizable Muslim population. The Congress’s vote share in several of these constituencies dropped almost 10 per cent.

The only Muslim legislator now is Imran Khedawala of the Congress who retained Jamalpur-Khadia in Ahmedabad. However, Khedawala’s victory margin dropped from 29,000 votes to 13,600. The MLA had told The Indian Express in an interview that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) would affect his margin and vote share, which plummeted from 58 per cent to 46 per cent.

Some of the seats that show how much trouble the Congress is in are:

Jambusar (Bharuch district): Muslims comprise 31.25 per cent of the voters here. Sitting MLA Sanjay Solanki of the Congress got 39.07 per cent of votes, down from 46.71 per cent, while the BJP’s Devkishordasji Bhaktisvarupdasji Swami, a godman, received 55.74 per cent of votes, up from 42.62 per cent.
Dariapur (Ahmedabad district): This seat has 46 per cent Muslim voters and the Congress has held it since delimitation in 2012. But the party’s vote share dropped from 50 per cent to 44.67 per cent while the BJP’s rose from 45.14 per cent to 49.05 per cent. Before delimitation, the BJP had held the seat since 1990.

Congress’s Gyasuddin Shaikh, a three-time MLA, said the usual 68-70 per cent Muslim voter turnout dropped to 62 per cent this time. He said the AAP and the AIMIM eroded his support base.

“In Dariapur, I poll nearly 12,000-15,000 Hindu votes and another 50,000 Muslim votes. This time, both the Hindu and Muslim votes were polarised. In a constituency like mine, it is easier to polarise voters. Another example of this pattern is Wankaner where Mahmad Javed Pirzada (Congress candidate who won in 2017) lost the Muslim vote while keeping the Koli voter base.”

Dahod and Jhalod (Dahod district): The Congress lost both its bastions. In Dahod (14 per cent Muslim votes) its vote share fell from 52.16 per cent to 25.95 per cent. The BJP, which won, saw its vote share rise from 42.03 per cent to 43.54 per cent. The AAP, with a 20 per cent vote share, damaged the Congress.

In Jhalod, the Congress came third behind the BJP and the AAP. While the ruling party’s vote share rose from 39.91 per cent to 51.41 per cent, the AAP took away a significant chunk of the votes at 29.53 per cent.

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A senior district Congress leader said, “The (Dawoodi Bohra) Muslim community of Dahod voted for the BJP even in the past … It was the AAP factor that played a spoilsport for the Congress in the constituencies in Dahod, in addition to the replacement of sitting MLAs. While the party had no choice as Jhalod MLA Bhavesh Katara had already resigned, the party also paid a price for internal rivalry in the district unit.”

Khambhaliya and Mangrol (Saurashtra): The Congress lost these seats in Saurashtra with a significant Muslim presence. The minority community accounts for 16.5 per cent of the electorate in Khambhalia in Devbhumi Dwarka district and 16.98 per cent in Junagadh district’s Mangrol.

Sitting MLA Vikram Madam’s chances were dented by AAP’s chief ministerial face Isudan Gadhvi who halved the Congress vote share in Salaya, which is a municipality with a significant Muslim presence. “Generally, I get 12,000 votes from Salaya and BJP around 1,500 votes. But this election, I got only 6,500 votes and an equal number of votes went to Isudan. The BJP tally increased to about 1,700. The poorest among the poor in Muslims got lured by the promise of freebies,” said Madam.

In Mangrol, incumbent MLA Babu Vaja of the Congress lost to the BJP’s Bhagvanji Kargatiya by 22,508 votes. The AAP’s Piyush Parmar split the anti-BJP votes by raking in 34,314 votes, or 23.22 per cent vote share. The AIMIM candidate polled 10,789 votes.

“While we lost a chunk of our assured votes to the AIMIM, the AAP took away around 4,000 votes held by the poorest of the poor in the minority community. Maldharis (cattle-rearers) also voted big for the AAP as the community bought on face value the AAP’s claim that Gadhvi was going to be the next CM,” Vaja said.

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In Kheda district, the Congress also lost the constituencies of Mahuda, Thasra, and Kapadvanj that have 13-18 per cent of Muslim votes. “The BJP definitely gained overall in Kheda district. Even in Matar, the decline is negligible (0.58 percentage point) and did not affect our results. Of course, the Congress suffered in most parts that are minority dominated due to its identity crisis. The party is not openly supporting its vote bank and is confused and broken. It is visible in the lack of trust that the people have in the Congress.”

The only constituency where the minority vote helped the Congress this time was Khambhat in Anand district where Muslim voters account for 11 per cent of the electorate. The Congress wrested this seat from the BJP in a close contest. It got 43.53 per cent of the votes while the BJP came up short and secured 41.19 per cent of the votes.

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