The importance of Ghulam Nabi Azad: He got Modi’s warmth in a speech, will he get the izzat Rahul didn’t give him?

And there was Dr Farooq Abdullah facing them — the doyen of Kashmir politics, whom Azad praised profusely. He was not just his close friend but there was “only one Farooq Abdullah in the world” who is a “living Kashmir”.

In his opening remarks, Karan Singh virtually blessed Azad’s ongoing politics, recounting a story of how it was his insistence that led to Azad being installed as Chief Minister of J&K. (Otherwise, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed would have continued as CM in what was otherwise a rotational arrangement agreed between the Congress and the PDP.)

The coming together of the three most senior politicians from Jammu and Kashmir— and arguably in the country — even though it was at a social function, is, to use a cliché but an apt one, pregnant with possibilities.

Azad hinted as much when he said repeatedly that “no one is an untouchable in politics” today. He was open to aligning with anyone, including the BJP, or other parties, if his newbie Democratic Progressive Azad Party was in a position to form a government in J&K.

The inescapable question the evening threw up was this: Could Ghulam Nabi Azad become Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ace card in J&K?

Said a senior Congress leader: “We realised which way the wind was blowing the day the Prime Minister became emotional about Azad in his Rajya Sabha farewell speech.”

J&K elections are expected either end 2023 or after the general elections next year. And, yes, it is early days to assess Azad’s relevance with several of his colleagues having deserted him.

The winds are unclear but there are straws in it. Azad, leader of the G-23 group of Congress dissenters demanding elections in the party, left the Congress in August 2022. And he revealed, with uncharacteristic candour, that Rahul Gandhi was the reason he quit the party. So had dozens of others.

He was asked what would he do if Sonia Gandhi were to ask him to return to the party? He laid bare the nature of decision-making in the Congress today with his reply: “If it was in Sonia Gandhi’s hands we would not be where we are…no, she cannot.”

What about Mallikarjun Kharge ?

“No way.”

Azad’s book acknowledges his closeness to Sanjay Gandhi during Indira Gandhi’s premiership, his relationship with Rajiv Gandhi who he helped bring into politics, and his role in persuading Sonia Gandhi to accept the presidentship of the Congress in 1998. His guns are trained solely at Rahul Gandhi in what is becoming a no-holds-barred battle.

Congressmen see the book as an attempt by Azad to settle scores with the Gandhi family. The book comes on the eve of the Karnataka elections where it’s clearly Advantage Congress as of today. A victory in the southern state could give the battered party a fillip. Azad could well be eyeing the CMship of J&K, with BJP support, or even a nominated seat in the Rajya Sabha.

Even his critics admit that Azad is among the very few politicians left on the non-BJP side who are 24×7 politicians — who breathe, think and do politics. With his experience of working with Prime Ministers Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi, Narasimha Rao and the Manmohan Singh-Sonia Gandhi duo, he’s among the few politicians today who can dial any major political player on either side of the fence and he will be heard.

He is also the quintessential weather-vane, trained in the Sitaram Kesri school of politics — able to sense the direction of the wind. A Congress leader once said about Kesri, who had overthrown PV Narasimha Rao as Congress President in 1996, “We watch even the smallest of movements of Kesriji, a twitch on his face, a movement of the hand, a stretch of the leg, a smile or a frown, to decode the party’s next moves.”

Azad is cast in the same mould. His words that it is “now too late” for him to return to the Congress — even if Rahul Gandhi were to ask him to do so — is his way of saying that Narendra Modi is not going anywhere in a hurry.

What’s the importance of Ghulam Nabi Azad in 2023? The answer to that question also lay in the front rows of the Nehru Memorial Library at the book launch.

Almost 30 leaders across parties attended the function, even those which have an alliance with the Congress—like the NCP (Supriya Sule and Praful Patel), the DMK (Kanimozhi and T Shiva). There were others from the National Conference, CPI, CPM, RLD, AAP, TRS, BSP, even from the usually fence-sitting Biju Janata Dal.

Barring Jyotiraditya Scindia and Dinesh Trivedi — both have Congress background – there weren’t many from the BJP. Anand Sharma and Janardan Dwivedi from the Congress were also at the event and Sharma told me, “I know I may have to pay a price for coming here …and I am not (going to be) spineless.” (Azad had said during his speech that it was essential to be spineless to continue in the Congress — of which he was a part.)

Are more unhappy Congressmen on their way out? Will some float their regional outfits, like Azad has done? Undoubtedly, it is easier said than done. And much will depend on how well — or badly—Azad does in the J&K elections.

Even as he spoke of his ideological differences with Modi, Azad praised the Prime Minister as a “statesman”, “too generous”, with a “capacity to tolerate criticism”– despite Azad’s criticism of him on issues such as demonetization, CAA, NRC and the abrogation of Article 370.

Does the PM see Azad useful in the next lap of his political journey? The absence of someone like Arun Jaitley has left him with few trouble-shooters he can trust who have a line to the opposition. Bureaucrats, no matter how loyal, can’t fill that breach.

Azad was, undoubtedly, given opportunities in the Congress system and he reaped the benefits of a culture he derides today. Party spokespersons have said the Congress’s “generosity” to Azad was “undeserved” but they fail to acknowledge that he, too, worked hard for the party for over five decades.

It is not uncommon for politicians to want to retain their relevance. The pragmatic Sonia Gandhi used to tread cautiously and try to prevent party persons from straying. Now the attitude is to “let them go” (Azad, Kapil Sibal, Himanta Biswa Sarma). This is really not so much about being denied a Rajya Sabha seat many covet, which is in short supply for a party out of power for nine years. It is more about the “izzat” which party leaders feel they should get. Will Azad get it from the BJP?

Let’s watch this space.

Neerja Chowdhury, Contributing Editor, The Indian Express, has covered the last 10 Lok Sabha elections