A look back at how close exit polls were in 2009, 2014, 2019

Most were right in predicting an NDA win the past two times, but not in anticipating the extent of the victory. In 2009, when UPA won, again the margin was far higher than predicted

In 2019, an average of 13 exit polls put the NDA’s combined tally at 306 and the UPA’s at 120 – underestimating the NDA's performance. (Express file photo by Ganesh Shirsekar)

Finally, as the Lok Sabha elections draw to a close on Saturday, 43 days after the first phase on April 19, all eyes will shift to the exit polls. A majority of the surveys Sunday predicted a thumping victory for the BJP-led NDA, with big gains for the party in the southern states and West Bengal. The INDIA bloc of Opposition leaders have put up a brave front, claiming that they will cross the half-way mark.

Between June 1 and June 4, when the results will be declared, it will be these exit polls that will keep parties either hoping or despairing.

So, how close were the exit polls in the past two general elections, 2014 and 2019, which were both won by the Narendra Modi-led BJP by huge margins? While the 2014 Lok Sabha polls were held between April 7 and May 12, with the results announced on May 16, the 2019 edition was from April 11 to May 19, and the results came out on May 23.

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In 2014, an average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP-led NDA winning 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA 105 seats – failing to estimate the extent of the ‘Modi wave’ that year, which saw the NDA finishing with 336 seats and the UPA with a mere 60. Of these, the BJP won 282 and the Congress 44.

2014 exit polls

In 2019, an average of 13 exit polls put the NDA’s combined tally at 306 and the UPA’s at 120 – again underestimating the NDA’s performance, which won 353 seats in all. The UPA got 93. Of these, the BJP won 303, and the Congress 52.

2019 exit polls

In 2009 too, when the UPA came back to power, an average of four exit polls underestimated the tally of the winner. They gave 195 seats to the UPA and 185 to the NDA. The UPA finally won with 262 seats, compared to the NDA’s 158. Of these, the Congress won 206 seats and the BJP 116.

2009 exit polls

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