Agnipath and after: BJP, JD(U) thrust and parry but won’t draw blood as yet

The JD(U) in return distanced itself completely from the Agnipath scheme for Army recruitment, remarking pointedly that it had not been consulted by its ally.

A BJP source said the party realises that Nitish Kumar has played his hand well in the protests. “He wants youngsters, a major support base for us, to turn against the BJP. He knows that the anger against the scheme would not affect him as he has distanced himself from it,” the leader said.

However, now used to the CM’s style of functioning, the BJP believes that Nitish Kumar would not take his push to shove, or take any drastic steps. As per JD(U) leaders, what the party chief wants is just “respect and proper communication” between the partners.

While Nitish Kumar has often tested the waters on these grounds, over Agnipath, he may be on more solid ground. Both the JD(U) and its other Bihar ally, Jitan Ram Manjhi-led Hindustani Awam Morcha, have reiterated the demand for a coordination committee in the wake of the Agnipath row, which they claim took them by complete surprise.

A JD(U) leader said: “The BJP did the same with the Akali Dal on the farm Bills, despite knowing that it would have implications in Punjab. This just shows that nothing has changed in the BJP’s attitude towards its allies.”

Though the BJP is confident that protests against Agnipath would prove temporary, another reason for it to let Nitish Kumar’s “lack of action” slide is its need for as many allies as it can muster for the presidential polls. “Our stakes are higher,” a party leader from Bihar said, while adding that the JD(U) was harbouring a “misplaced” calculation that this would also be like the farm agitation.

On Sunday, BJP Bihar president Sanjay Jaiswal held a virtual meeting with state party MPs and MLAs where they were told to “refrain from attacking the JD(U)”. The BJP has reportedly also asked its spokespersons not to react to remarks of JD(U) leaders ahead of the July 18 presidential poll, where the JD(U) could end up playing the role of a spoiler, if not worse.

Nitish Kumar has, meanwhile, sent out deliberately muddled messages by cosying up to RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav. In the 243-member Assembly, the NDA has 127 MLAs – BJP 77, JD(U) 45, HAM 4 – and an Independent supporting it. The RJD has 76 MLAs, the Left parties 16 and the Congress 19.

The Bihar CM has not made any formal commitment to back the NDA’s presidential candidate either; only clarifying categorically that speculation regarding him being one of the contenders was misplaced. Recently, Nitish Kumar said: “We supported candidates of our choice in 2012 and 2017. This time, there is no announcement of a presidential candidate. We also do not know if there is one or more candidates.”

A JD(U) leader said this was a well-thought strategy to keep the BJP guessing and that “Nitish Kumar has suggested that the stature of the candidate would matter for the JD(U) to take a call”.

The leader added that the JD(U) also knew that it wasn’t likely to get any other big issue before the 2024 polls to squeeze the BJP on. “We have already played the caste census issue to our advantage by getting the Bihar BJP to support the state demand against the Centre’s stand. Now, we are putting pressure on the BJP to review the Agnipath scheme. The presidential candidate matter also gives us an opportunity for an upper hand.”

As per this leader, the matter may finally be decided by Nitish Kumar getting a call from some “top BJP leaders” to discuss the presidential polls – and that it may be coming soon.