Opinion Setback to ‘Sultan’

Once a people have experienced democracy, they will be reluctant to allow a power grab by an individual or party in perpetuity. This is the message Turkish voters have conveyed to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the parliamentary elections that saw the ruling AKP lose its majority for the first time in 13 years, falling below 41 per cent of the vote. The AKP has still won the election, and it may yet form a coalition or minority government. But a new political era has undoubtedly dawned in Turkey, demonstrated by how well the opposition — from the rightwing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and centrist Republican People’s Party (CHP) to the leftwing pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which crossed the 10 per cent vote threshold to send members to parliament for the first time — has performed. It’s not impossible for this disparate opposition to cobble a coalition to keep out the AKP.

What has happened may be seen as the termination of a long-term, carefully designed strategy by “Sultan” Erdogan to turn Turkey into a de facto one-party state, in the course of which he had first elevated himself from prime minister to the largely ceremonial post of president, which he then planned to empower, converting the system into an executive presidency via constitutional amendment. Voters, especially young and urban, appear to have tactically cast their vote to put the brakes on this one-man political show.

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In this context, the HDP’s success assumes significance. Having campaigned on a liberal platform, stressing gender equality and gay rights, the HDP has a responsibility to press for the Kurdish peace settlement the AKP didn’t deliver and also influence national politics. Turkey’s strategic position near war-torn Syria and Iraq and Ankara’s need to repair relations with its neighbours make political stability an imperative. It’s to be seen if Turkey gets a government in the coming days, or a fresh election.