Opinion If Trump does not intervene in Iran, it will send a signal of impunity to the regime
The American president has repeatedly talked in recent days about coming to the help of the Iranian people. But the bitter fact is that he and his administration are already a week too late
Let us not forget that the recent killing of thousands of Iranians (mostly young people) will certainly have an impact on the socio-political imaginary of the Iranian nation. One of the dark pages of European diplomacy in the 20th century is Neville Chamberlain’s “appeasement” policy towards Nazi Germany, culminating in the 1938 Munich Agreement, where he ceded Czechoslovakia’s Sudetenland to Hitler, hoping to prevent war. Nearly 90 years later, after the moral failing of British diplomacy in the hands of Chamberlain, US President Donald Trump is repeating the same strategic error by getting into an “if and then” game with the Iranian government. Trump threatened severe consequences for Iranian authorities should they carry out executions of the protesters. But as of January 15, he has softened his rhetoric, claiming that he has received assurances that the executions and killings of protesters have stopped.
The American president has repeatedly talked in recent days about coming to the help of the Iranian people. But the bitter fact is that he and his administration are already a week too late. Tragically, in the past few days, international human rights groups have estimated the death toll to be as high as 12,000. While the Iranian government snapped the internet and cut off all communication with the outside world, the shock and horror of thousands killed spread through cities and neighborhoods.
In Iran, unlike everywhere else in the world, the first days of the new year were marked by accounts of crimes against humanity. Alongside widespread killings, thousands were arrested and charged with waging war against God. As a result, similar to the 2022 protests during which hundreds of teenagers were killed, the Iranian authorities have decided to preserve their power at all costs. The regime is relying heavily on lethal force and violent crackdowns by calling upon the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij militia. The Iranian authorities have also been accused of using Iraqi and other foreign proxy militias to suppress the protests.
These proxy fighters are primarily members of Iraqi Shia militias and the Hashd al-Shaabi (Popular Mobilisation Forces/Units). It appears that the Iranian government is deploying foreign Shia militias because the domestic security forces may show signs of hesitation in killing fellow Iranians. There have been images on state TV of funeral processions for members of the Iranian security apparatus killed during the unrest in Tehran and other cities. The Armed Forces Chief of Staff Abdolrahim Mousavi blamed foreign powers for the unrest and destruction.
Unlike previous demonstrations in 2009 and 2022, the recent protests in December and January had the support of the White House and the European Parliament. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz condemned the violent repression by the regime’s security forces, calling the response of the state “disproportionate” and “brutal”. Yet, the Iranian ambassador in Berlin was not summoned to convey Germany’s displeasure. Also, a joint statement issued by Chancellor Merz, together with French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, did not announce any concrete measures against the Iranian regime.
If Trump does not intervene despite his recent statements, Iranians will interpret this as a huge abandonment and the government will see it as a green light for another wave of massacres. Let us not forget that the killings (mostly young people) will certainly have an impact on the socio-political imaginary of the Iranian nation. Many will continue to live with a vision of change, but with the savagery of the current repression, the middle class and those living in poverty are beginning to believe that only an armed revolt or external intervention can bring down the Islamic Republic.
This shift towards violence by a peaceful generation will be regrettable, as it will run counter to the idea of Persia as a civilisation of beauty, and intercultural and inter-ethnic tolerance.
The writer is director, Mahatma Gandhi Centre for Nonviolence and Peace Studies, OP Jindal Global University
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