Opinion For India, the message of the US-China detente is clear

From a bipolar world between 1945 and 1989, divided between the United States and the Soviet Union, to a unipolar one after the latter’s collapse, there is now enough evidence to suggest the return of bipolarity: Two superpowers competing to control and shape the world order. The US-China rivalry has increasingly been characterised as the Group of Two, now even by US President Donald Trump, who framed his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, on Thursday as the “G2”. There are expectations and fears in some quarters that the G2 implies a system in which the US and China strike bargains and collude to manage the world on their own terms. However, the structural competition between the two — both seeking dominance in military, advanced technologies, trade networks, and supply chains — is too intense for them to enter a permanently cooperative relationship that marginalises other powers.

The Busan summit led to a deal under which China would defer export controls on rare earths and increase agricultural purchases from the US, while Trump reduced tariffs on Chinese imports. Yet, the truce is temporary, one that allows the US and China to undo the damage from the trade war they themselves escalated, and is due for renegotiation in a year. What can be expected of the G2, therefore, is a dynamic equilibrium swinging between confrontation and cooperation. Still, it is essential to recognise that China is, indeed, a great power. Its influence is everywhere: Manufactured products, smartphones, green energy, and trade. China’s control over rare earths gives it significant leverage in international affairs, and the technology gap between Washington and Beijing is evidently shrinking. China’s power is only going to grow. The 15th Five-Year Plan makes clear that its leadership intends to prioritise further increasing the country’s industrial and technological strength.

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For India, China remains its foremost strategic rival. Beijing’s adventurism on the border has grown; India runs a trade deficit of over $100 billion, and the China-Pakistan nexus persists. The challenge for India, then, is to manage this unstable US-China dynamic in a way that harnesses economic opportunities with Beijing while resolving differences and strengthening its relationship with the US, with which it has shared interests (India and the US have just inked a 10-year defence framework pact in Malaysia). New Delhi must also consolidate its partnerships across the world. Even within an emerging bipolarity, powers like Europe, Japan, and Brazil have an important role to play. Ultimately, however, a nation’s influence in global affairs is determined by its assets and the leverage they bring. India is projected to become the world’s third-largest economy, yet the gap between the countries in the third and second positions remains vast. India has its task cut out. Diplomatic dexterity must be matched by the acceleration of defence modernisation, economic and technological reform, investment in education and skill development, and the strengthening of domestic institutions. Unlike China, India has a long way to go to reap its demographic dividend. If India does not build up internally, its capacity to navigate externally in a rapidly changing world will prove difficult.