A ceasefire is not peace. However, in a conflict that began with an act of terror and was followed by an outsized response that has left a region devastated — over 46,000 dead, many of them children — and which threatens to engulf much of West Asia, it is a reason for cautious hope. Israel and Hamas have agreed to pause hostilities and accepted a ceasefire deal after months of negotiation. The first of three phases under the agreement is set to begin on January 19. Hamas has agreed to release 33 Israeli hostages, including men, women and children over 50 and Israel will release Palestinian prisoners. A little over a fortnight into phase 1, talks on implementing phase 2 will begin — the remaining hostages are to be returned, a permanent ceasefire negotiated and all Israeli troops withdrawn from Gaza. Finally, in the third phase, the hope is that the reconstruction of Gaza will begin under the aegis of UN agencies, Egypt and Qatar.
The deal that has gone through was reportedly on the table for some months. The question that arises, then, is: Why was it accepted now? The outgoing US administration will indeed get some credit for the ceasefire. However, President-elect Donald Trump, too, has warned of dire consequences if the violence in Gaza did not abate and Hamas did not return hostages. While much of his rhetoric was directed at the latter, he also sent signals to the Benjamin Netanyahu government by, for example, reposting a particularly critical video about the Israeli PM featuring economist Jeffry Sachs on his social media platform, Truth Social. Netanyahu is reportedly unlikely to visit Washington for Trump’s inauguration. Even before the war, Netanyahu’s diminished political capital was framed by protests on changes in the law regarding judicial reforms. The coalition he leads has bled allies; Netanyahu has held on to power by increasingly relying on the far-right parties. The unpredictability of Washington’s attitude ahead of Trump’s inauguration next week may have pushed Israel into a ceasefire. The three-phase plan, though, will require genuine effort by both sides. Netanyahu’s political ambition and Hamas’s intransigence both threaten to play spoiler. Reports of both sides using the ceasefire as an opportunity to regroup are also disquieting.
