In August 2021, there was a barely disguised triumphalism in Rawalpindi and Islamabad after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the swift takeover of the country by the Taliban. Then PM Imran Khan had said that the Taliban’s return marked the Afghan people “breaking the shackles of slavery” and there was talk from senior members of the government about the “creation of a new bloc” in the region. The clashes between the two countries on Pakistan’s western border — Afghanistan retaliated with strikes across the Durand Line after Pakistan targeted what it called hideouts for militants in the former — mark a deterioration of ties and the deepening of instability in an already volatile region.
There has been an intensification of insurgencies in both Balochistan and Pashtun territories. The Pakistan Army, which has long fostered militant groups to deploy against India, faces significant challenges to its authority. It has accused Kabul of sheltering the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and trying to foment insurgency in parts of Pakistan. The Taliban does not recognise the Durand Line — it continues to refer to it as “hypothetical”. The Pashtun people continue to suffer at the hands of extremists and Rawalpindi’s counter-terrorist operations. The Pakistan state’s refusal to engage with the Pashtun Tahafuz (self-respect) Movement (PTM) — the organisation was banned earlier this year — and take seriously the grievances of the community only make a peaceful, constructive dialogue more difficult. The fact is that at the current moment, the Pakistan Army and the government have their backs to the wall. The country has gone through a sustained economic crisis, and the insurgency in Balochistan is a threat to the security of Chinese-backed projects. It has also had border clashes with Iran.
