President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is not only turning out to be a military blunder, but also a political disaster for Russia. It is producing strategic outcomes that Putin’s war apparently aimed to prevent — the further expansion of Western military alliance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). The decision by Finland and Sweden — two countries that steadfastly remained neutral in the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the West during the second half of the 20th century — to join NATO marks an important moment in the strategic evolution of Europe since the Ukraine crisis began.
The smaller countries on Moscow’s western periphery are afraid — very afraid — of Russian military power. For them, membership of NATO is about protection from the Russian threat. NATO membership is a defensive measure for these countries and not aimed as a challenge to Russia. Russia, with its massive army and thousands of nuclear weapons, is well positioned to deter and defend against attack on its territory. Its neighbours don’t have that luxury. Putin’s unprovoked aggression against Ukraine has reinforced the fears of the smaller countries and raised their incentives for seeking NATO membership. Equally important, Moscow might not have attacked Ukraine if it was already a member of NATO. Gaining membership of NATO has become a matter of greater urgency for Russia’s western neighbours. NATO’s principle of collective defence — that attack on any member will rally the rest — has now become even more valuable for Russia’s eastern neighbours.
This column first appeared in the print edition on May 16, 2022, under the title ‘Blame it on Putin’.
