Opinion NDA govt’s plan to produce more weapons at home needs urgent and purposeful policy action

Last week the House of Representatives, the lower House of the US Congress, passed an amendment with a significant majority that called for an India-specific waiver from sanctions for the purchase of advanced Russian weapons. This sets the stage for Delhi and Washington to find a way around the problem of India’s continuing dependence on Russian weapons. It is an issue that has acquired greater salience since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act in 2017 demanded sanctions on states that buy Russian weapons. The US imposed these sanctions in 2020 on Turkey, a NATO ally, for purchasing the S-400 missile system from Russia. With India, too, committed to the purchase of the S-400  from Moscow, it seemed inevitable that Washington would impose sanctions on Delhi and undermine a budding strategic partnership. US and India have been steadily building up the bilateral defence and security cooperation, are partners in the Indo-Pacific and members of the Quad along with Australia and Japan.

To be sure, the CAATSA authorised the US President to waive the sanctions provided there was an overriding national security interest. Both the Trump and Biden administrations had avoided imposing the sanctions but were hesitant to offer a waiver. Both were worried about the overwhelming anti-Russian sentiment in the US Congress. The House amendment now offers solid political support for the waiver. This, of course, is only the first step that needs to be matched by the US Senate and jointly approved by the two Houses at a later sitting. But the House amendment acknowledges the danger to the US interests from a mechanical application of CAATSA sanctions on India. It notes the special military challenges that India confronts from an assertive China in the Himalayas. While calling for a waiver, the House amendment calls for a deeper defence collaboration with India, and stronger high technology cooperation, and active encouragement to reduce Delhi’s current dependence on Russian military supplies.

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Although a rapid diversification away from Russian supplies can’t be done overnight, it is a good moment for the Indian security establishment to review the changing context of Delhi’s defence ties to Moscow. Indo-Russian defence ties emerged at a moment when Moscow was fighting Beijing in the 1960s. Russia and China are now close partners, while Beijing remains the main source of Delhi’s security problems. Russia and China are also aligned against the West, which has become a major partner for India. After invading Ukraine, Russia is locked in a deep confrontation with the US and Europe. Although India can work on the margins to reduce the impact of Western sanctions on Russia, dealing with Moscow will only become trickier for Delhi in the days ahead. If and when the Ukraine war ends, Russia’s focus will be on rearming itself rather than exports to other countries. Delhi, however, has no reason to jump from dependence on Russia to total reliance on the West. The NDA government has emphasised the importance of producing more weapons at home. It also wants domestic and foreign private capital to invest in India’s arms production. Translating that laudable goal into reality demands more urgent and purposeful policy action in Delhi than we have seen so far.