Opinion Watching US power dribble away
Oil addiction and dependence on Chinese credit are two big reasons why America has lost leverage.
OK. I admit it. I enjoy reading other peoples mail as much as the next guy,so going through the WikiLeaks cables has made for some fascinating reading. Whats between the lines in those cables,though,is another matter. It is a rather sobering message. America is leaking power.
Lets start,though,with whats in the cables. I think Ive figured it out: Saudi Arabia and its Arab neighbours want the US to decapitate the Iranian regime and destroy its nuclear facilities so they can celebrate in private this triumph over the hated Persians,while publicly joining with their people in the streets in burning Uncle Sam in effigy,after we carry out such an attack on Iran which will make the Arab people furious at us. The reason the Arab people will be furious at us is because they dislike their own unelected leaders even more and protesting against the Americans,who help to keep their leaders in power,is a way of sticking it to both of us.
Are you with me? While the Saudis are urging us to take out Irans nuclear capability,we learn from the cables that private Saudi donors today still constitute the most significant source of funding to Sunni terrorist groups worldwide not to mention the fundamentalist mosques,charities and schools that spawn the Taliban. It seems from these cables that the US often has to pay leaders in Pakistan and Afghanistan to be two-faced otherwise they would just be one-faced and against the US in both public and private.
OK, our Saudi,Gulf,Afghan and Pakistani allies tell us,we may not be perfect,but the guys who would replace us would be much worse. The Taliban and Al-Qaeda are one-faced. They say what they mean in public and private: They hate America. Thats true,but if we are stuck supporting bad regimes because only worse would follow,why cant we do anything to make them reform? That brings us to the sobering message in so many of these cables: America lacks leverage. America lacks leverage in the Middle East because we are addicted to oil. We are the addicts and they are the pushers,and addicts never tell the truth to their pushers. We also lack leverage with the Chinese on North Korea,or with regard to the value of Chinas currency,because were addicted to their credit.
Geopolitics is all about leverage. We cannot make ourselves safer abroad unless we change our behaviour at home. Think how different our conversations with Saudi Arabia would be if we were in the process of converting to electric cars powered by nuclear,wind,natural gas and solar power? We could tell them that if we detect one more dollar of Saudi money going to the Taliban then they can protect themselves from Iran.
Think how different our conversations with China would be if we had had a different savings rate the past 30 years and China was not holding $900 billion in US Treasury securities but was still dependent on the US economy and technology. We would not be begging them to revalue their currency,and maybe our request that China prevent North Korea from shipping ballistic missile parts to Iran via Beijing airport wouldnt be rebuffed so brusquely. And think how much more leverage our sanctions would have on Iran if oil were $20 a barrel and not $80 and Irans mullah-dictators were bankrupt?
Fifty years ago,the world was shaped in a certain way,to promote certain values,because America had the leverage to shape it that way. We have been steadily losing that leverage because of our twin addictions to Middle East oil and Chinese credit and the WikiLeaks show just what crow we have to eat because of that. I know,some problems like how we deal with a failing state like Pakistan that also has nukes are innately hard,and ending our oil and credit addictions alone will not solve them. But it sure would give us more leverage to do so and more insulation from the sheer madness of the Middle East if we cant.
THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN
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