Opinion Tracking states on mobiles

Possibly,the first stuff of fancy for an Indian with the barest extra money is a mobile

August 11, 2013 01:01 AM IST First published on: Aug 11, 2013 at 01:01 AM IST

Possibly,the first stuff of fancy for an Indian with the barest extra money is a mobile. Telecom companies know this and so does the government,evident from the range of services both want to load the spectrum with.

So is it possible to track how Indian states and particularly the rural people in those states are doing by tracking their mobile buying pattern? It turns out that one can do so and quite effectively,at that.

Latest data released by the telecom regulator for performance indicators for the last three years shows a very interesting growth story. From 2010-11 to 2011-12 the amount of money spent by rural India across states was phenomenal. In states like Bihar and Orissa the percentage addition of rural subscribers was 17.66 and 17.79. If you compare the numbers with richer states (Gujarat,12.78,Punjab,10.05,Tamil Nadu,10.64) the distance becomes apparent.

At the scale we are comparing (millions) it is obvious prosperity was seeping into rural India. No matter how useful a mobile is,it still ranks after the basic necessities like food,shelter and transport is taken care of. But what happens next is more remarkable. As the growth rate of GDP has come down in the past two years,the growth rate has turned negative in all these markets,but with a difference.

In Gujarat the drop is just 3 per cent; Andhra Pradesh records a drop of 3.9 per cent. These are less than the all-India drop in average for rural India at 5.6 per cent. Village people in these states have witnessed strong growth over a long history to convince them that it is not necessary to give up their gains in a hurry. Kerala for instance records an even lower drop of 2.42 per cent.

At the other end of the spectrum is West Bengal,clearly becoming Indias basket case. In one year the rural subscriber base has dropped 11.16 per cent,the highest among all major states. Orissa is also edgy,the percentage has slipped by close to 8 per cent,but Bihar has possibly moved over to the other side. The drop is 5.29 per cent,less than Tamil Nadu at 6.62 per cent. The most remarkable is,however,Madhya Pradesh even this year there has been a one per cent rise.

The lessons are clear. It takes time for a growth story to become an acceptable fact of life in rural India,but more states believe it now. And nowhere has the secular gains made from rising rural teledensity (mobile per hundred subscriber) been lost. The only exception is West Bengal.

Subhomoy is a deputy editor based in New Delhi

subhomoy.bhattacharjee@expressindia.com