This was the year the world finally changed. You may not think it haswhat with prices so being high,the Telangana riots and the Ruchika Girhotra case. Yet,get your mind off the urgent but daily problems and you will see a pattern emerge. When the USSR disintegrated in 1991,the world became unipolar with only one hyper-powerthe US. Even the European allies of America had no control over its activities. Bush Sr was explicit about how America wanted to shape the world and Operation Desert Storm- Iraq Mark 1 was the result. For years after that,the international community was clamouring for a multi-polar world. As G5 became G-7 and then G-8,the lead was still with G-1.
What happened at Copenhagen shows how far the world has come. Once the financial crisis hit the US and the rest of the OECD,the new balance emerged. Thanks to nearly twenty years of globalisation,China and India are no longer just emerging countries. Goldman Sachss label BRIC was a mistake since Russia is neither a well run economy nor a stable polity. But the message was clear that a new economic order was about to replace the old one. For many years the international diplomatic status of both India and China did not match their economic presence. Chinas position in the UN Security Council was above its economic strength and Indias below. Chinas veto based on the old 1945 settlement allowed it to play the role of a spoiler. Indias premature attempt to bid for permanent power status was brushed aside since it was not yet ready in view of the world.
What happened in the final stages in Copenhagen was dramatic. It came down to the new G-5US plus BASIC. This was a direct North-South showdown. The EU countries were kept out. The issue was of growth and redistribution. China played hard ball,using its new economic clout to good effect. It had in its company India,Brazil and South Africa. Ten years after Kyoto the power map in climate talks is totally changed. So it is a new multi-polar world. The poles are of unequal size but India is one of the poles. The world will never be the same again. Next decade will make that clear.
Happy 2010.
