Opinion The blood-red movement
Theatrics on Bangkoks streets distract from real problems....
This is no run-of-the-mill protest. Protests in Bangkok seldom are. This is theatrics. Calls from the Red Shirts,the nationalists,were sounded in early March. There was to be a million-man rally. It was hoped that the reds farmers and northern peasants,those who failed to benefit from the prosperous 80s and 90s would convince average Bangkokians to join their cause,sense their inequalities,understand their suffering.
They amassed in large numbers two weeks ago an estimated 1,50,000 gathered. Unlike the clashes seen over the previous years,this protest was peaceful. It did have a hint of black magic though. Magic aimed at the dissolution of government. Thousands donated vials of blood; together they poured their blood around government buildings,on the streets,in front of cameras. They marched over to the newly appointed Cambridge-educated PMs house,calling for Abhisit Vejjajiva to resign then poured blood on his doorstep. The blood would usher in a transformation: he would be forced to quit. And,as ever,the reds were encouraged by their mentor former PM Thaksin Shinawatra.
Thaksin is the heart of the blood-red movement. His years in office saw a populism never previously seen in Thailand. His constituency were the poor,those who received a mere 5 per cent of Thailands revenues. During his tenure he attempted healthcare reform and handed out rural loans. Mild successes were exaggerated.
Yet,he remains a cult figure,still seen on the streets of Bangkok via video-link,although he lives in self-imposed exile following a warrant being issued against him for embezzlement. From his mansion in Dubai,he calls for a class struggle; he has further divided the elite from the poor by drawing on the historical conflict in Thai society between the ammart (bureaucrats) and phrai (commoners).
Thai society continues divided,now between the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts. The yellows,royalists,are Bangkoks elite. Those who came to prominence in the 90s,the ones who felt threatened by Thaksin and the consecutive Thaksin-backed governments. They are the ones who brought Bangkok airport to a halt in March last year,the ones with close ties to the military and that are thought to be responsible for the ouster of last years pro-Thaksin (elected) government.
But this year the shades of red and yellow have blurred. Rather than convoys of farmers it has been Bangkoks many shopkeepers,waitresses and office workers taking part in the protests. Bangkoks middle class has,for the first time,participated.
Whats more: the Red Shirts have stepped out with a very obvious and stated aim: to further add weight to their cause by diversifying their support base. The yellows speak for the elite,the red for the rural. The middle class are up for grabs. Which makes everything much messier. It is difficult to see a way back to stability. The rural poor will never go back to the days when they simply accepted the rule of Bangkok. Yet the elites remain unwilling to give up any of their power. The anti-Thaksin forces are doing nothing to help calm the situation, says Joshua Kurlantzick,a CFR scholar and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The paralysis of political stalemate is made worse by two pressing issues. The first is that it stunts debate on the very important issue of the royal succession. The king wields considerable power in Thailand. In fact it was King Bhumibhols involvement that ensured the smooth functioning of Thailand during previous crises. During the 1973 riots,he allowed for a new constitution; after 1992s Black May,he installed a democratic set-up (1992). He is now 83 and in weak health; but Thailands strict lèse majesté laws mean open debate on a successor is being brushed aside. The ongoing rift does not
help either.
The second is the growing insurgency in the predominantly Muslim south. With attention lavished on the streets of Bangkok,the Islamists in the south have had a free rein. 2004 to 2007 saw 1,189 bombs in the south,and 3,253 deaths caused by the insurgents,according to the RAND Corporation. The Krue Se Mosque incident saw 30 militants holed up inside one of Southeast Asias most prominent mosques,and a Thai government counterattack that left hundreds dead. This insurgency is brewing further; yet attention continues to be fixated to the Red-Yellow standoff.
Bangkok is but one part of the battle in Thailand. The reds demands for immediate elections are unlikely to be met. Yet elections are mandated by law next year. Rather than drama and magic on the streets of Bangkok,both government and opposition would benefit from more conventional politics rather than the shaving-heads gestures seen today.
alia.allana@expressindia.com
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