Opinion The 100 days of possibility
The US has three cascading jobs crises and only about 100 days to do anything about them
Ive been saying this for a while,but now it feels even more acute: Americas democracy has shrunken to the only 100 days. Since FDR,weve measured presidents by their first 100 days. But now its really the only 100 days. Presidents lately seem to have just those 100 days to lay down a transformational agenda and get it passed,before they have to tailor their politics to the midterm elections and then,if,as often happens,their party loses the midterms they have to focus on the next presidential election. China has five-year plans. We have 100 days every four. So all Im thinking about now is how we get the most out of the first 100 days of 2013.
Our priority is obvious: jobs. We are having three jobs crises at once, argues the Harvard labour economist Lawrence Katz. The first jobs crisis is the one driven by the steep drop in aggregate demand for goods and services that began with the 2008 sub-prime crisis,notes Katz. Way too many firms are not hiring workers because they just dont see the demand.
The second jobs crisis grows out of the first. It is long-term unemployment people who have been out of work for so long theyve lost their connections to the job market and need help getting back, said Katz.
The third jobs crisis flows from the merger of globalisation and the IT revolution. The president described it in his Kansas speech: Steel mills that needed 1,000 employees are now able to do the same work with 100 employees,so lay-offs too often became permanent,not just a temporary part of the business cycle… Today,even higher-skilled jobs,like accountants and middle management can be outsourced to countries like China or India.
So the next president must have a plan to address all three jobs crises in his only 100 days and an electoral mandate to implement it. For starters,we need a focused,near-term stimulus that both stokes aggregate demand and expands the job markets of the future. The days when Ford or General Electric would come to your town with a 25,000-person factory are over. That factory,notes Katz,is now 500 people operating machines and robots. Manufacturing can no longer carry Americas middle class.
We need to think of the future middle class as being generated not by factories but by hubs, argues Katz. These are networked urban areas like Austin,Silicon Valley and Raleigh-Durham,where people learn,imagine and create value rapidly by combining universities,high-tech manufacturers,software/ service providers and highly nimble start-ups that collaborate and compete to invent things that make peoples lives more entertained,productive,healthy,educated and comfortable.
If we had a stimulus focused on 21st-century jobs,and a credible long-term fiscal reform plan,it would unlock the scale of investment we need to revive the employment market today and address the future. If Obama ran on that big plan,he would win and have an electoral mandate to implement it in his only 100 days. Sadly,he seems intent on playing small ball. He is capable of,and the country needs,much bolder leadership.
Oh,well. Theres always the first 100 days of 2017.
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