If the gods favor India with the enforcement of home team advantage against Australia ,then India should win the final against either South Africa or Sri Lanka. But everything about this wonderful World Cup is almost too close to call.
World Cup 2011 has been one of the most exciting ones,ever. And after two dreary World Cups in 2003 and 2007 (remember the Kenya India semi-final in 2003!) what a treat awaits cricket fans as the quarter finals get underway starting March 23rd. While a treat for the fan,a nightmare for those pretending to be Paul.
But pretend we must. If elections in India can be forecast,why not cricket matches? I first took on this exercise in 1987 when I authored Between the Wickets which was then (is it still?) the only book to evaluate cricket statistically. The passion for the game still burns bright as ever as the quest to analyze,and predict,cricket matches and cricket outcomes.
I realize this is a hazardous exercise and the probability of being wrong is large. But who can correctly forecast the glorious uncertainties of cricket,and especially those involving Afridis wandering warriors? But herewith some assessments and forecasts. For the true fan (both statistical and otherwise) http://cricketx2011.wordpress.com/ has the details,past forecasts,and analysis,and more. The details are for the geeks,but let us have some fun with their efforts.
Part of the reason for the excitement in this WC is the fact that the top four Test playing teams are the closest in team strength,ever. At the beginning of this WC,there were no clear favorites,and the situation holds at the quarter final stage as well. How CricketX gets at team strength is a circuitous and complicated affair; sufficeth to say that it is all UBHH untouched by human hands. Yes,it is a computer model that generates the strengths,and updates such attributes on the basis of performance in each match.
Enough of the caveats by way of background. The safest quarter-final match to predict is the South Africa New Zealand quarter final. CricketX places South Africa as firm favorites with a 70 percent chance of winning. Yawn. All the other three quarter-finals are forecast to be close matches with each of the teams Pakistan,Australia and Sri Lanka with a 55-45 percent chance of winning against West Indies,India,and England,respectively. Does that mean that the quarter-final is the end of the road for India?
Not so fast. In batting,India is ranked (by CricketX,of course) number one, some 15 percent ahead of Australia,and 8 percent better than South Africa. But,yes,all the rumours are true. Indias bowling attack is the weakest; it is 20 percent worse than the best bowling attack of South Africa. One-day experts generally under-estimate the role of bowling. It counts for as much as batting. Which means that Australia wins?
Well,there are some other tricks that a statistician can pull. Remember home-team advantage? Analysis suggests that sometimes it can add about 4 to 8 percent to a sides chances of winning. Add that to the India Australia match and the outcome is even closer. And in such circumstances,especially as an Indian,you say that all the right things will happen,that Sehwag and Tendulkar will both click,and that India will proceed to the semi-finals for a match against Pakistan.
The likely line up then: India vs. Pakistan and South Africa vs. Sri Lanka. What can one say about Pakistan? They are entertaining,and unpredictable,which only adds to their appeal. Any neutral fan would want to see them in the final. But statistics back India. On the other hand,Pakistan is the most improved team since the beginning of the tournament. And in the last match,it defeated Australia,against all odds,including itself. The gang that hasnt been able to shoot straight for quite some time was able to win with pin-point accuracy. You gotta go with momentum; but then India is ahead of Pakistan in both batting and bowling. We have the best batting side in the tournament (remember that India scored 296 against South Africa). Luck and chutzpah can only take one so far. So while the India Pakistan match should have the usual fireworks,the odds back India.
South Africa Sri Lanka. SA the most balanced side with one of the best bowling attacks of all time. Sri Lankan bowling is well,not South Africa. But Malinga,and especially oldie but goldie Muralitharan,can post a surprise. But dont bet on it. England can be there,(remember it is a close match between England and Sri Lanka ) but one is not allowed more than one exception to the CricketX rules,and I exhausted my referral with the forecast that India will win against Australia.
The story of forecasts so far. In the quarter-finals,the introduction of home-team advantage allowed the overruling of the Cricket X . If India cross the Australia hurdle,then according to Cricket X,they should win the final. But it will be close,and closer against South Africa than Sri Lanka. If Australia beat India,they are unlikely to win their fourth consecutive world cup. Now let us sit back and enjoy the cricket and the forecasts.
* Please visit http://cricketx2011.wordpress.com/ for behind the scenes enjoyment of the great unpredictable game of cricket.
The writer is chairman of Oxus Investments,an emerging market advisory and fund management firm
