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Wednesday, February 26, 2020

Surjit S Bhalla

The writer is Contributing Editor at The Indian Express, and Consulting Editor at Network 18

Rationalisation in tax rates is the surest remedy for revenue enhancement
Sat, Feb 08, 2020

Forecast of most experts was that the bold corporate tax cut of September 2019 would lead to a decline in tax collections, would not help economic growth. The opposite seems to have happened.

Separating fact from economic fiction: Growth slowed beyond expectations starting late 2018
Sat, Jan 25, 2020

Our very conservative estimate is that absolute poverty in 2017-18 was in the low to mid-single digits — a decline of 6-8 percentage points from the 14 per cent level in 2011-12. This is indeed a happy note as we celebrate 70 years of the creation of the Indian Republic.

The results of the NSO survey 2017-18 are truly bizarre
Wed, Nov 27, 2019

Not every government report should be accepted. Sometimes institutions fail to produce a credible report. Sometimes a nation has to recognise that its statistical institution is failing the most basic of ‘smell’ tests and is in need of reform.

The making of history: Modi Econ 2.0 has started with a big bang
Sat, Sep 28, 2019

Modi Econ 2.0 has started with a big bang — the largest corporate tax cut in world history for new manufacturing firms. Surely this is just the beginning.

A politician and an optimist
Sat, Aug 31, 2019

Arun Jaitley will be missed for his friendships across political camps, and contribution to policymaking. Above all, he was a man of ideas

High real interest rates have hurt economic growth
Sat, Aug 10, 2019

Is India as different as claimed by “experts”? My own experience, and interpretation, is that India is very different because the experts (perhaps including those at the central bank) look at monetary policy very differently.

Borrow abroad and profit
Sat, Aug 03, 2019

Cross-country evidence supports the conclusion that the sooner India engages in foreign currency borrowing, the quicker it can profit from this market imperfection

It is time we recognised that survey data cannot be interpreted in the way it used to be
Sat, Jul 27, 2019

India was a pioneer in data collection some 70 years ago. It should be recalled that GDP data in the first 30- odd years was based on the consumption data collected by the NSSO. Poverty rates, and policies, were based on NSSO data.

Maximise revenue, minimise tax
Sat, Jul 13, 2019

India has just one policy option to advance private investment and become a $5 trillion economy — reduce corporate tax rate for all firms to 22 per cent, reduce misguided rates of personal income tax.

Finance Ministry could have been bolder. But budget is heavy on vision and inclusive growth
Sat, Jul 06, 2019

Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget speech was what budget speeches ought to be. A vision statement of what the government plans to do. She set the tone of her speech in an honest and direct manner.

Rethink poverty — and policy
Sat, Jun 29, 2019

Given the estimated poverty decline in India between 2011-12 and 2016-17, time has come to change our economic policies — concentrate on what causes growth, not what causes poverty to decline

The most off-track of them all
Sat, Jun 22, 2019

Arvind Subramanian’s method of estimating GDP suggests that Germany over-estimates and Brazil under-estimates it the most. India is only a mild outlier.

Is it possible that GDP was over-estimated and no one knew about it, including economists in govt?
Sat, Jun 15, 2019

Is it possible that growth was over-estimated by a large 250 bps a year for five years and no one knew about it, including economists in government?

Why chemistry trumps arithmetic
Sat, Jun 01, 2019

All indicators lead to the same conclusion: Modi’s BJP recorded a spectacular victory in 2019 due to its provision of inclusive growth — very close to the best in the world in 2014-18

This election was about past record of Modi government and expected performance
Sat, May 25, 2019

The stage has been well and truly set for the next generation of economic reforms. There is no going bacK and the people believe Modi and trust Modi to deliver. That is why this election was about the delivery, and promise, of the Modi government.

If exit polls are right, Election 2019 marks a structural change in Indian politics — the end of Congress’s dynastic rule
Tue, May 21, 2019

The most unfortunate event to befall the Congress was that the party won three states in December 2018. This lulled them into thinking that they had a good chance of making a come back in these states, and therefore, across India.

Like 2014, 2019 election is being contested around economy. Will the result be similar?
Sat, May 11, 2019

Scholars have derived the conclusion that Modi was a minority winner (only 31 per cent vote), that he did not win a popular mandate, that 2014 was a Black Swan (very unusual event) election and, therefore, unlikely to be repeated again.

After election results, India will be able to escape to realism from reality it is presently inhabiting
Sat, May 04, 2019

Well, Election 2019 is turning out to be Rashomonesque. Everybody is seeing the same “facts” yet each has a different description of the reality, and its effect on the election.

A statistical embarrassment
Sat, Apr 13, 2019

Data claiming 45-year peak in unemployment is misleading. Indian institutions are still operating with the technology and outlook of 70 years ago.

NYAY: Garibi bachao, not hatao
Thu, Apr 04, 2019

Congress’s programme of poverty elimination is so flawed that its advocacy before an election is akin to political suicide.

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