Surjit S Bhalla

The writer is contributing editor, ‘The Indian Express’, and senior India analyst, The Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group

Articles By Surjit S Bhalla

What divides RBI and MoF

In a modern, middle-income, growing country, high real interest rates hurt the economy — and the people

Whose RBI is it?

Genuine independence of a central bank has to be earned the old-fashioned way — by performance.

Jobs and the pre-election year

Conventional wisdom of no job growth in 2017-18 is found to be a gross under-estimate by a correct application and interpretation of household survey data for that period.

Scalding oil, sliding rupee

Sometimes a crisis is brought on by faulty analysis; at others, by poor politics. The proper response to a crisis, however caused, is to change the course of the future.

Pro-women, pro-poor

India may have just witnessed the best four years of inclusive growth, thanks to the Centre’s sanitation programme

Not a question of cash

Whether demonetisation failed or succeeded is not a moral question. Is it too much to expect that in this data-dependent world, we should discuss hard evidence rather than soft opinions?

No Proof Required: GDP Report – misreading the facts

Back-series GDP Report mistakenly concludes that GDP growth during UPA-I was higher by 0.5 per cent per annum. GDP growth was very likely lower by 1.4 per cent and not much different than during NDA-I

Inequality, myth and reality

Crony capitalism notwithstanding, there is no evidence that India has experienced an above average increase in income inequality

The fake news on GST

It is a sad commentary on experts when they allow their prejudices to dominate what they say.This holds true for their underestimations of GST revenues.

Jobs and votes

The maximum number of claims of jobless growth have been made in 2018. But it may well be the year of maximum employment gains in the last 15 years.

Job gains versus fake analysis

Let us debate facts or close approximations. Let discussions on government’s economic performance rise above the unintelligent discourse that passes for analysis

India is middle income now: Raise the poverty line

Regardless of the poverty line used, it appears that India is on track for the fastest pace of poverty reduction in the period between 2011/12 and 2017/18

Let the elite pay

To reform education system, provide a level playing field, regardless of caste, sex, or income. Stop subsidising higher education for the rich.

Inflation, not yet viral

Pronouncing the rebirth, or even significant acceleration in inflation, may be a trifle premature

Will Karnataka toll for the Congress?

The Congress stands to both gain, and lose, more from the Karnataka poll results than the BJP. That is the simple asymmetry behind this important election

Robust job growth, not fake news

The best macro-economic performance ever in India was obtained in 2014-18. Modi’s challenge remains the reining in of the enemies within.

No Proof Required: Plagiarism at the World Bank?

At a minimum, the World Bank is guilty of following the not so scholarly tradition of Western scholars to ignore scholarship from elsewhere, even when it is right under their nose.

Goebbels and fake news — spot the difference

The Opposition is trying to create an alternate narrative about the political and economic reality under the Modi government.

The little-revenue tax

LTCG is a bad idea. The best policy for the taxman is one that maximises revenue, not one that maximises his morality, or his employment, or discretionary powers

Revolution and regression

Tax buoyancy has helped the government to budget for schemes that make transfer of revenues to the bottom third of the population possible. There was no reason for the long-term capital gains tax

Advertising
Advertising