Surjit S Bhalla

The writer is Contributing Editor at The Indian Express, and Consulting Editor at Network 18

Articles By Surjit S Bhalla

A statistical embarrassment

Data claiming 45-year peak in unemployment is misleading. Indian institutions are still operating with the technology and outlook of 70 years ago.

NYAY: Garibi bachao, not hatao

Congress’s programme of poverty elimination is so flawed that its advocacy before an election is akin to political suicide.

Congress’s concept of minimum income guarantee is intellectually embarrassing and deeply flawed

Very likely, and I am speculating, it was because of the opposition of Congress’s economic consultants that there were glaring and obvious contradictions in the Congress’s Minimum Income Guarantee (MIG) income, and the contradiction between survival and poverty line income.

Economic data: Fact vs fiction

Annual Survey of Industries data for 2016-17 shows that output growth, and industrial jobs growth, have sharply accelerated post 2013. This data has not been questioned by any expert

Misuse of economic data

Since the overwhelming Congress loss in the 2014 election, the misuse of statistics appears to be politically motivated.

2019 alliance math — road to nowhere

Mahagathbandhan may not work in 2019 due to internal contradictions. The alliance’s problem is that the Congress is a natural enemy of important regional parties

Tax and expenditure reform — a dream beginning

The hope is that the 2019-20 budget will be the beginning of an overhaul of India’s antiquated and corrupt tax and redistribution policies

10% for EWS is a good initiative for poor — and the best policy for Muslims

This will be the first time that poor non-OBC non-SC/ST individuals will get a chance. And given that Muslims are the poorest (economically weakest), they should obtain preference in the EWS 10 per cent quota.

Jobs, in perspective

India does not need 12 million jobs a year, it needs less than 5 million. A large part of the so-called jobs crisis is because of demand for government jobs, not jobs per se

No Proof Required: Revolution of rising expectations

Voters expect more from those who deliver, and are disappointed when reality and expectations do not match. But does disappointment result in throwing out those who deliver?

Politics & numbers

New GDP back-series data released by CSO is credible. Let's not play politics

What divides RBI and MoF

In a modern, middle-income, growing country, high real interest rates hurt the economy — and the people

Whose RBI is it?

Genuine independence of a central bank has to be earned the old-fashioned way — by performance.

Jobs and the pre-election year

Conventional wisdom of no job growth in 2017-18 is found to be a gross under-estimate by a correct application and interpretation of household survey data for that period.

Scalding oil, sliding rupee

Sometimes a crisis is brought on by faulty analysis; at others, by poor politics. The proper response to a crisis, however caused, is to change the course of the future.

Pro-women, pro-poor

India may have just witnessed the best four years of inclusive growth, thanks to the Centre’s sanitation programme

Not a question of cash

Whether demonetisation failed or succeeded is not a moral question. Is it too much to expect that in this data-dependent world, we should discuss hard evidence rather than soft opinions?

No Proof Required: GDP Report – misreading the facts

Back-series GDP Report mistakenly concludes that GDP growth during UPA-I was higher by 0.5 per cent per annum. GDP growth was very likely lower by 1.4 per cent and not much different than during NDA-I

Inequality, myth and reality

Crony capitalism notwithstanding, there is no evidence that India has experienced an above average increase in income inequality

The fake news on GST

It is a sad commentary on experts when they allow their prejudices to dominate what they say.This holds true for their underestimations of GST revenues.