Surjit S Bhalla

The writer is contributing editor, 'The Indian Express', and senior India analyst, The Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group

Not a question of cash
Sat, Sep 01, 2018

Whether demonetisation failed or succeeded is not a moral question. Is it too much to expect that in this data-dependent world, we should discuss hard evidence rather than soft opinions?

No Proof Required: GDP Report – misreading the facts
Tue, Aug 21, 2018

Back-series GDP Report mistakenly concludes that GDP growth during UPA-I was higher by 0.5 per cent per annum. GDP growth was very likely lower by 1.4 per cent and not much different than during NDA-I

Inequality, myth and reality
Sat, Aug 11, 2018

Crony capitalism notwithstanding, there is no evidence that India has experienced an above average increase in income inequality

The fake news on GST
Sat, Aug 04, 2018

It is a sad commentary on experts when they allow their prejudices to dominate what they say.This holds true for their underestimations of GST revenues.

Jobs and votes
Sat, Jul 21, 2018

The maximum number of claims of jobless growth have been made in 2018. But it may well be the year of maximum employment gains in the last 15 years.

Job gains versus fake analysis
Sat, Jul 14, 2018

Let us debate facts or close approximations. Let discussions on government’s economic performance rise above the unintelligent discourse that passes for analysis

India is middle income now: Raise the poverty line
Sat, Jun 30, 2018

Regardless of the poverty line used, it appears that India is on track for the fastest pace of poverty reduction in the period between 2011/12 and 2017/18

Let the elite pay
Sat, Jun 23, 2018

To reform education system, provide a level playing field, regardless of caste, sex, or income. Stop subsidising higher education for the rich.

Inflation, not yet viral
Sat, Jun 02, 2018

Pronouncing the rebirth, or even significant acceleration in inflation, may be a trifle premature

Will Karnataka toll for the Congress?
Sat, May 12, 2018

The Congress stands to both gain, and lose, more from the Karnataka poll results than the BJP. That is the simple asymmetry behind this important election

Robust job growth, not fake news
Sat, Apr 28, 2018

The best macro-economic performance ever in India was obtained in 2014-18. Modi’s challenge remains the reining in of the enemies within.

No Proof Required: Plagiarism at the World Bank?
Sat, Apr 21, 2018

At a minimum, the World Bank is guilty of following the not so scholarly tradition of Western scholars to ignore scholarship from elsewhere, even when it is right under their nose.

Goebbels and fake news — spot the difference
Sat, Mar 31, 2018

The Opposition is trying to create an alternate narrative about the political and economic reality under the Modi government.

The little-revenue tax
Sat, Feb 17, 2018

LTCG is a bad idea. The best policy for the taxman is one that maximises revenue, not one that maximises his morality, or his employment, or discretionary powers

Revolution and regression
Sat, Feb 10, 2018

Tax buoyancy has helped the government to budget for schemes that make transfer of revenues to the bottom third of the population possible. There was no reason for the long-term capital gains tax

Smart policies for redistribution
Sat, Jan 27, 2018

India can, and must, reform its welfare system. More efficient redistribution is desirable for ethical and political reasons

Piketty has got it wrong
Sat, Jan 20, 2018

The implied savings estimates for India, derived from his calculations of income distribution, do not conform to any known model of savings behaviour

Tax-fruits of demonetisation
Wed, Jan 17, 2018

A direct outcome of demonetisation is a sharp increase in 2017-18 in tax buoyancy (revenues per unit of growth). Given this ‘unexpected’ result, will the knee-jerk critics of demonetisation please stand down?

World economy: Looking up
Mon, Jan 01, 2018

It is on course for high growth, low inflation, lower taxation, increased income support for the needy. And declining inequality.

No proof required: Gujarat 2017, lessons for all
Sat, Dec 23, 2017

This election was the first since slow economic growth was apparent and in the data. A slow economy, however, was not the only factor — after all, in Himachal Pradesh (HP), the BJP won by a large margin.

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