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Friday, May 27, 2022

Surjit S Bhalla

The writer is Contributing Editor at The Indian Express, and Consulting Editor at Network 18

Understanding why voters elected BJP to power in four states
Sat, Mar 12, 2022

Surjit S Bhalla writes: Several factors – including effective delivery of food rations to bottom 50 per cent during pandemic – influenced their decision.

What the NFHS data reveals about inequality in India
Sun, Dec 05, 2021

🔴 Surjit S Bhalla, Karan Bhasin write: It suggests an inclusive pattern of development with poorer states doing better on development indicators

The repeal of the retrospective tax shows Modi government means business on reforms
Thu, Aug 12, 2021

Surjit S Bhalla writes: The end to the retro tax is also a pointer to more capital reforms to come.

There is limited evidence to suggest that electoral rallies resulted in spread of the pandemic
Thu, Apr 22, 2021

Till then, armchair experts should introspect and appreciate India’s ability to conduct elections, with high voter participation, and do so in a pandemic.

How did inflation targeting really impact India?
Sat, Mar 20, 2021

Surjit S Bhalla writes: Inflation targeting in India was not responsible for the decline in inflation. It contributed to a decline in GDP growth because of excessively high real policy rates.

Sitharaman has faced down critics to unshackle India’s economic growth story
Sat, Feb 06, 2021

Surjit S Bhalla writes: What is even more remarkable is that the good budget came in the year of the farmers protests.

Only India stands out with a flattening curve among those that had earlier experienced an explosion of infections
Sat, Jan 16, 2021

Based on the available state-level data, some states in India have already achieved herd immunity while other states are catching up.

NFHS data reveals large improvements in welfare for Indian children, women, and households, then why the deep angst?
Sat, Dec 26, 2020

Surjit S Bhalla writes: Some authors are explicit, others indulge in nudge-nudge, wink-wink — these four years were also the first four years of the changing political order in India — the beginning of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister.

Protesting farmers are arguing for the perpetuation of colonial rule
Sat, Dec 12, 2020

Surjit S Bhalla writes: A minuscule minority of farmers is protesting against the farm laws. They don’t want an end to the system that has benefited them.

Lockdowns don’t work. It remains a mystery as to why the world entered one
Sat, Oct 24, 2020

Surjit S Bhalla writes: Lockdowns were an unnatural experiment and, around the world, they have not worked in achieving their major health objective of less infections or slower pace of infections.

PM Modi has used COVID crisis to reorient India towards reform, long awaited destiny
Mon, Jun 01, 2020

No matter how the calculation is done, India is a positive fiscal stimulus outlier; by IMF-PT calculations, the stimulus is close to the largest among major emerging market economies.

Rationalisation in tax rates is the surest remedy for revenue enhancement
Sat, Feb 08, 2020

Forecast of most experts was that the bold corporate tax cut of September 2019 would lead to a decline in tax collections, would not help economic growth. The opposite seems to have happened.

Separating fact from economic fiction: Growth slowed beyond expectations starting late 2018
Sat, Jan 25, 2020

Our very conservative estimate is that absolute poverty in 2017-18 was in the low to mid-single digits — a decline of 6-8 percentage points from the 14 per cent level in 2011-12. This is indeed a happy note as we celebrate 70 years of the creation of the Indian Republic.

The results of the NSO survey 2017-18 are truly bizarre
Wed, Nov 27, 2019

Not every government report should be accepted. Sometimes institutions fail to produce a credible report. Sometimes a nation has to recognise that its statistical institution is failing the most basic of ‘smell’ tests and is in need of reform.

The making of history: Modi Econ 2.0 has started with a big bang
Sat, Sep 28, 2019

Modi Econ 2.0 has started with a big bang — the largest corporate tax cut in world history for new manufacturing firms. Surely this is just the beginning.

A politician and an optimist
Sat, Aug 31, 2019

Arun Jaitley will be missed for his friendships across political camps, and contribution to policymaking. Above all, he was a man of ideas

High real interest rates have hurt economic growth
Sat, Aug 10, 2019

Is India as different as claimed by “experts”? My own experience, and interpretation, is that India is very different because the experts (perhaps including those at the central bank) look at monetary policy very differently.

Borrow abroad and profit
Sat, Aug 03, 2019

Cross-country evidence supports the conclusion that the sooner India engages in foreign currency borrowing, the quicker it can profit from this market imperfection

It is time we recognised that survey data cannot be interpreted in the way it used to be
Sat, Jul 27, 2019

India was a pioneer in data collection some 70 years ago. It should be recalled that GDP data in the first 30- odd years was based on the consumption data collected by the NSSO. Poverty rates, and policies, were based on NSSO data.

Maximise revenue, minimise tax
Sat, Jul 13, 2019

India has just one policy option to advance private investment and become a $5 trillion economy — reduce corporate tax rate for all firms to 22 per cent, reduce misguided rates of personal income tax.

Finance Ministry could have been bolder. But budget is heavy on vision and inclusive growth
Sat, Jul 06, 2019

Nirmala Sitharaman’s budget speech was what budget speeches ought to be. A vision statement of what the government plans to do. She set the tone of her speech in an honest and direct manner.

Rethink poverty — and policy
Sat, Jun 29, 2019

Given the estimated poverty decline in India between 2011-12 and 2016-17, time has come to change our economic policies — concentrate on what causes growth, not what causes poverty to decline

The most off-track of them all
Sat, Jun 22, 2019

Arvind Subramanian’s method of estimating GDP suggests that Germany over-estimates and Brazil under-estimates it the most. India is only a mild outlier.

Is it possible that GDP was over-estimated and no one knew about it, including economists in govt?
Sat, Jun 15, 2019

Is it possible that growth was over-estimated by a large 250 bps a year for five years and no one knew about it, including economists in government?

Why chemistry trumps arithmetic
Sat, Jun 01, 2019

All indicators lead to the same conclusion: Modi’s BJP recorded a spectacular victory in 2019 due to its provision of inclusive growth — very close to the best in the world in 2014-18