The writer is contributing editor, 'The Indian Express', and senior India analyst, The Observatory Group, a New York-based macro policy advisory group
Whether demonetisation failed or succeeded is not a moral question. Is it too much to expect that in this data-dependent world, we should discuss hard evidence rather than soft opinions?
Back-series GDP Report mistakenly concludes that GDP growth during UPA-I was higher by 0.5 per cent per annum. GDP growth was very likely lower by 1.4 per cent and not much different than during NDA-I
Crony capitalism notwithstanding, there is no evidence that India has experienced an above average increase in income inequality
It is a sad commentary on experts when they allow their prejudices to dominate what they say.This holds true for their underestimations of GST revenues.
The maximum number of claims of jobless growth have been made in 2018. But it may well be the year of maximum employment gains in the last 15 years.
Let us debate facts or close approximations. Let discussions on government’s economic performance rise above the unintelligent discourse that passes for analysis
Regardless of the poverty line used, it appears that India is on track for the fastest pace of poverty reduction in the period between 2011/12 and 2017/18
To reform education system, provide a level playing field, regardless of caste, sex, or income. Stop subsidising higher education for the rich.
Pronouncing the rebirth, or even significant acceleration in inflation, may be a trifle premature
The Congress stands to both gain, and lose, more from the Karnataka poll results than the BJP. That is the simple asymmetry behind this important election
The best macro-economic performance ever in India was obtained in 2014-18. Modi’s challenge remains the reining in of the enemies within.
At a minimum, the World Bank is guilty of following the not so scholarly tradition of Western scholars to ignore scholarship from elsewhere, even when it is right under their nose.
The Opposition is trying to create an alternate narrative about the political and economic reality under the Modi government.
LTCG is a bad idea. The best policy for the taxman is one that maximises revenue, not one that maximises his morality, or his employment, or discretionary powers
Tax buoyancy has helped the government to budget for schemes that make transfer of revenues to the bottom third of the population possible. There was no reason for the long-term capital gains tax
India can, and must, reform its welfare system. More efficient redistribution is desirable for ethical and political reasons
The implied savings estimates for India, derived from his calculations of income distribution, do not conform to any known model of savings behaviour
A direct outcome of demonetisation is a sharp increase in 2017-18 in tax buoyancy (revenues per unit of growth). Given this ‘unexpected’ result, will the knee-jerk critics of demonetisation please stand down?
It is on course for high growth, low inflation, lower taxation, increased income support for the needy. And declining inequality.
This election was the first since slow economic growth was apparent and in the data. A slow economy, however, was not the only factor — after all, in Himachal Pradesh (HP), the BJP won by a large margin.