Opinion Pakistan & friends
As donors meet in Tokyo,dont expect too many stern conditions on Islamabad
As the Friends of Pakistan gather in Tokyo today to unveil a bailout package for our very special western neighbour,India should not entertain any hopes that the world might extract genuine commitments from Pakistan on ending its support to extremism in return for significant economic assistance.
Given Islamabads posturing that it will not accept aid with strings attached,there will be little talk in Tokyo of a quid pro quo. There might be a vague reference to standards,benchmarks and goals,but there is no question of the international community laying down explicit preconditions for aid.
On the face of it,there are two separate,back-to-back meetings taking place in Tokyo today. In the morning,the Friends of Pakistan convene to hear President Asif Ali Zardari outline a roadmap on how he plans to address the economic and security challenges that confront him. The Friends of Pakistan forum includes the United States,Japan,China,Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates,Turkey and the European powers. The forum is not the place where the pledges for enhanced aid to Islamabad will be made; those come in the afternoon,when Pakistans main bilateral and multilateral donors meet.
The outcome at Tokyo is indeed a predictable one: there will be nice words from Zardari that few among his interlocutors would want to believe. Since give they must,the Friends are expected to fork out around $4-6 billion,far below Zardaris exaggerated demand for about $30 billion over the next 10 years.
Put simply,Zardaris less than credible assurances will be matched by a none too impressive cheque book diplomacy from Pakistans Friends. This is no surprise since Zardaris standing has rapidly tumbled at home and abroad in recent weeks,especially after his humiliating surrender to the Taliban in Swat. There are reports suggesting that even some of Pakistans best friends,Saudi Arabia and China,are lukewarm towards Zardari and it was difficult therefore to whip up international enthusiasm for the Tokyo loan mela.
Next week,the focus shifts to Washington where the US Congress will reconvene after the Easter break to debate proposed terms for a $15 billion package of economic assistance to Pakistan over the next 10 years.
Since the US Congress is not a gathering of diplomats,one might expect a lot more noise on asking for Pakistans good behaviour in return for the aid being offered. Not all noise in Washington,however,translates into policy.
To be sure,US President Barack Obama had insisted that there would be no free lunch for Islamabad,when he promised a significant increase in the US economic assistance to Pakistan as part of his newly minted Af-Pak strategy.
The first version of the legislation (called Pakistan Enduring Assistance and Cooperation Act or PEACE Act,2009) introduced in the House of Representatives earlier this month had a number of seemingly tough conditions for example,on ending support from Pakistans intelligence agencies to extremist and terrorist groups that target India.
There was also language demanding American access to the nuclear scientists involved on illicit trading such as A.Q. Khan. There could be similar language in the Senate version of the bill which is likely to be tabled shortly.
Popular anger,simulated or otherwise,has greeted the US aid bill in Pakistan,and a measure of enthusiasm in New Delhi. Both,however,are unwarranted.
Recall our own prolonged and breathless debate about the Hyde Act,the US legislation on nuclear cooperation with India,that so animated our leftists and textualists and nearly brought down the Manmohan Singh government in 2008. As in the Hyde legislation,so in the PEACE Act,there is less than meets the eye when it comes to the so-called conditionalities.
A lot of the language,especially in the declaratory sections,is hot air aimed at winning over different factions in the US Congress. Even the more rigorous formulations in the operational parts of the legislation can be waived by the president if he deems it to be in the US national interest.
Despite the tall talk on holding Pakistan accountable on counter-terrorism,the Obama administration might be happy to recommend a dilution of the language in the congressional bills. After all,no American president,whether Obama or George W. Bush before him,has wanted the Congress to constrain his freedom to run foreign policy.
If Obama cannot get the Congress to water down the bill,he can always affirm his own interpretation of the bill when he signs it into law. (That is what Bush did when he signed the Hyde Act rejecting language that was not acceptable to India.)
As the US-Pakistan negotiations on Afghanistan enter a critical moment,India must expect that the Obama administration will indeed find a way to deliver assistance to Pakistan without too many preconditions. Nor is there a reason to believe that a few words in a US legislation will help solve Indias problems with Pakistan.
A healthy scepticism on US-Pakistan relations,however,should not come in the way of appreciating the profound instability that envelops the political engagement between Washington,Kabul,Islamabad and New Delhi. Whatever might be the nature of the current US-Pakistan bargain,it is unlikely to last as Al-Qaeda and the Taliban gather momentum.
New Delhi must also recognise that we are at the very beginning of a process that could rewrite the subcontinents political fate. At the moment,India has no option but to wait for the many contradictions to play out in the Af-Pak region. Indias patience could become a strategic virtue if it prepares for a decisive policy intervention in the not too distant future.
With our political class preoccupied with the general elections,it is the responsibility of our security establishment to generate the full range of options in Afghanistan and Pakistan for the next prime minister.
The writer is a professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies,Nanyang Technological University,Singapore
express@expressindia.com
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