The India-Russia summit is an annual feature now,every December it is either the Russian president in New Delhi or the prime minister of India in Moscow. A regular institutionalised dialogue between two traditional partners means that a lot of the script is ready,outcomes decided and friendship reaffirmed. Not much ever seems to change in this narrative,except that this time the backdrop is dramatically different both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev appear politically weak and even tired.
Of course,their situations are not the same. After elections to the Duma,Medvedev is technically a lameduck president waiting for his successor to be elected by March. Dr Singh,on the other hand,is barely half way through his second term,but his government looks crisis-ridden and ineffective to push its daily agenda let alone fresh ideas. So when these two leaders sit across,discussing bilateral commitments,regional and global issues and the way forward,it would be difficult to overlook the credibility deficit surrounding the conversation.
Dr Singh is also slated to meet Putin,who would be keen to showcase the visit by the leader of the worlds largest democracy at a time when Russias own democratic credentials are under a cloud. But much like in India,graft at high places has become an important rallying point for Russian protesters. Putin needs to package an agenda against corruption before the presidential election while Dr Singh is in the process of legislating one. So in political terms,the Dr Singh-Putin talks would be far more significant as both leaders will expect a friendly understanding of each others political limitations while steering this partnership through the next year,till the 2012 summit meet.
But concerned as much as they may be about their own predicaments,the leadership on both sides cannot overlook the strategic importance of their meet as it comes at a time when there is considerable uncertainty in the security environment. The Af-Pak region is heading towards dangerous instability,prompting regional powers to reposition themselves according to their priorities,capacities and,more importantly,their ability to influence. India has been counting on Russia to revisit the earlier arrangement,prior to 9/11,when the two countries,along with Iran,sustained an effective resistance to the Pakistan-backed Taliban regime in Afghanistan.
Russia is,however,giving out different signals this time. The newfound energy in Pakistan-Russia relations is the one that has set New Delhi thinking the most,even though Moscow has been clear that it will not sell defence equipment to Islamabad. Pakistan was always keen to take this relationship forward,particularly Pervez Musharraf,who in 2003 undertook the first official visit by a Pakistani head of government in three decades to Russia. Even after leaving office,Musharraf visited Moscow in 2009 which was followed by Pakistan army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayanis visit in the same year. But there has been a clear stepping up of interaction this year.
Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari visited Russia,along with the defence minister,just 10 days after the killing of Osama bin Laden. Islamabads central message was that it wants to diversify ties and reduce dependence on the United States. Then,within 10 days of this visit,Russias commander-in-chief of ground forces,Colonel General Alexander Postnikov,visited Pakistan for the first time in two decades. After that,the Pakistan naval chief visited Russia for the International Maritime Defence Show,and on the margins Islamabad conveyed its willingness to participate in joint exercises,anti-piracy operations and even proposed port calls. Then,of course,Pakistan PM Yousaf Raza Gilani also held useful bilateral discussions on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meet in St Petersburg last month.
Indias concern has been the possibility of this interaction gradually giving way to a Pakistan-Russia defence relationship which would have a direct bearing on Indian security as well as immediate implications on its Af-Pak strategy.
Clearly,there is a shift in Moscows approach and India cannot be certain that Russia will return to the pre-9/11 model of cooperation. For that matter,even New Delhi realises that the mode of engagement cannot be the same. But what is politically important is to be sure that both sides are on the same page regardless of differences in approach.
So while Dr Singhs visit will see the revival of the North-South Corridor project the ambitious plan to link the Caspian Sea through a network of rail,roads and ports with India through Iran a decade after it was signed,there will be the political question of whether or not to cater to Pakistan in all these projects just like the TAPI pipeline and the CASA-1000 electricity trade and distribution project.
Unlike the previous decade,Russia seems to have assessed that its principal problem from Afghanistan is illegal movement of narcotics into its territory through Central Asia,not terrorism. The jury is still out on whether being pro-active after the US withdrawal would be the best way to keep terror out of Russia or if a more ameliorating strategy,a bit like Chinas,built around a growing economic relationship with Pakistan,even defence later,be a better option.
It is unlikely that there will ever be a concrete answer to these complex security questions,but what is crucial is to forge a timely political understanding to aggressively invest in creating mutually helpful options. The time is clearly now and that is what the challenge is for Dr Singh,Medvedev and Putin,because the domestic setting is not the only backdrop that is changing for the two countries.
pranab.samanta@expressindia.com
