Opinion Obama and Iran

As the US debates its options in the faltering Afghan war,the idea of a regional approach to stabilise the nation has been in play for a while. Those who underline the importance of the regional approach naturally emphasise the centrality of Iran,which has a long border with western Afghanistan.

Shia Iran also has a big ideological problem with the Sunni extremism of the Taliban. It had joined hands with India,Russia and the Central Asian Republics to help the opponents of the Taliban in the late 1990s.

President Barack Obama apparently favours a separate track of engagement with Iran on Afghanistan and might be ready to explore the opportunity to build on their shared interests in combating drug trafficking and preventing the return of the Taliban to power.

Obama has reportedly told a group of American newspaper columnists that Iran should and could be a “constructive partner” in Afghanistan. But most observers of US-Iran relations are sceptical whether Washington and Tehran can really build on their visibly shared interests in Afghanistan.

For Washington,the problem is that a dialogue with Tehran on Afghanistan might undermine the current efforts of the administration to compel Iran to slow down and eventually abandon its nuclear weapons programme. The Obama administration has expended much political and diplomatic capital in building an international consensus on tightening the UN sanctions against Iran and got many Western countries to impose further unilateral sanctions to squeeze the Iranian economy.

Opponents of the Iran engagement in Washington point to the dangers of letting the Afghan imperative undermine the larger challenge of containing Iran’s defiance of the non-proliferation regime. American supporters of the sanctions say they are beginning to bite and hope that they will force Iran to count the costs of its nuclear defiance.

That Tehran had slapped down Obama’s hand when he extended it to Iran early on in his presidential term last year,has also sapped much of the enthusiasm in Washington for engaging Iran.

When last year’s street protests led by the Green movement against the rigging of presidential elections shook the Iranian regime,Obama was reluctant to castigate Tehran’s repression in the hope of finding a breakthrough on the nuclear question. That breakthrough never came. If Washington is conflicted about dealing with Iran,Tehran is apparently even more divided on how to deal with the US.

An open podium

As Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,who is in New York this week,holds forth from the unique global platform that the UN General Assembly offers there will be considerable international interest in the next moves by him and Obama.

Ahmadinejad’s decision to release American hiker Sarah Shourd,who was held captive in Iran for many months,on the eve of the UNGA session has raised expectations for some diplomatic movement between Washington and Tehran.

In his speech on Thursday,Obama is likely to stress that it’s the basic question is not about an unending quarrel between the US and Iran,but about Tehran’s nuclear obligations to the international community. As he did last year,Obama will insist that “the door is open to engagement” and that Iran must make the first move by offering nuclear concessions.

Whatever the impact of the sanctions,Iran’s contentious domestic politics will not allow Ahmadinejad to be seen as making any consequential compromise in New York. He must look defiant and sound triumphal to his domestic constituencies even if he chooses to signal flexibility on the nuclear issue.

A big deal

As Iran’s nuclear programme continues to advance,Tehran’s nervous Arab neighbours are turning to massive purchases of sophisticated arms. According to reports in Washington,the Obama administration is preparing to notify the American Congress about the sale of advanced fighter jets and helicopters worth $60 billion to Saudi Arabia. This is said to be the single biggest arms deal ever announced by the US.

raja.mohan@expressindia.com