Opinion Nitish Kumar has his back to the wall
While the BJP has reason to celebrate its sweeping victory in the bypolls in Gujarat,it may also not be less jubilant about the defeat of the JD-U
While the BJP has reason to celebrate its sweeping victory in the bypolls in Gujarat,it may also not be less jubilant about the defeat of the JD-U in the Maharajganj Lok Sabha bypoll in Bihar. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will now be compelled to go back to the drawing board to recalibrate his strategy.
The Maharajganj results re-established the primacy of caste over the development agenda. In a constituency where Rajputs,Yadavs and Bhumihars constitute more than half the voters,the first two came together to ensure the victory of RJDs Prabhunath Singh. That Kumars social engineering formula comprising extremely backward castes and Mahadalits and his wooing of Muslims did not work was evident from Singhs massive victory margin.
As the JD-U candidate in 2009,Singh had lost by less than 3,000 votes. Coupled with the development agenda,his social engineering had proved a winning formula in the 2010 assembly polls. Obviously,much water has since flowed in the Ganges.
JD-U candidate P K Shahi,a Bhumihar,was quick to blame his loss on the lack of enthusiasm on part of NDA (read BJP) workers who were smarting under Kumars tirade against Narendra Modi,although Kumars deputy,Sushil Modi,did campaign for two days. Incidentally,this tirade failed to swing minority votes in favour of the JD-U in Maharajganj.
Kumar will have to factor in the lessons from Maharajganj before further cornering the BJP over the Modi issue. Given the way he has tied himself into knots over Modi,there is not much manoeuvring room for him to retreat without a loss of face.
What,therefore,are the options for Kumar? If he does not want to risk his alliance with the BJP,his best option would be that the BJP does not project Modi as PM candidate. But he has demanded the BJP declare its PM candidate before the polls.
If Kumar decides to risk his alliance with the BJP over Modi,his best hope would be that the minorities would reward him for this sacrifice. He will need another alliance partner who could,even partly,make up for the loss. Congressmen believe Kumar would turn to them to consolidate his hold on the minority votebank and to wean a section of upper castes away from the BJP.
The Congress candidate,son of the RJD MP whose death necessitated the bypoll,lost his deposit and Kumar has to be really desperate to ally with the Congress. As it is,he seems to be caught between the devil and the deep sea.
D K is a Senior Editor based in Delhi
dk.singh@expressindia.com
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