Opinion Natural partners

Dhaka’s calm demeanour in the last few days underlines a new sense of self-assurance in Bangladesh. It also brings into bold relief the courage of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina who has invested so much political capital in trying to transform the sensitive relationship with India.

Since she came to Delhi in January 2010 and unveiled a bold bilateral agenda,the return visit by Dr Singh has been eagerly anticipated in Bangladesh. Dhaka’s sceptics were willing to concede that India had talked the talk of building a new relationship with Bangladesh by agreeing to resolve all the outstanding problems,including water-sharing,market access and boundary settlement to name a few.

The big question was whether Dr Singh would walk the walk. Few in Dhaka and fewer still in Delhi were willing to bet that the sweeping bilateral agenda of January 2010 can at all be implemented.

As negotiations dragged on over admittedly complex issues that had become intractable over decades of political neglect,there was much concern that Dr Singh might miss the boat with Bangladesh as he did with Pakistan.

It might be recalled that Dr Singh and then Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf had agreed to tackle all bilateral disputes,including Jammu and Kashmir,at their meeting in Delhi in April 2005. Much progress was made in the negotiations with Pakistan during 2005-06.

But by the time Dr Singh decided to travel to Pakistan in March 2007,the political window for clinching major agreements had shut as Musharraf’s power began to ebb rapidly.

In South Asia’s diplomatic minefield,second chances are rare. Take,for example,the boundary-related issues with Bangladesh which are close to resolution today. The fact is that it has taken us nearly four decades to get there after a framework agreement on the boundary was signed in 1974 by Prime Ministers Indira Gandhi and Sheikh Mujibur Rahman.

An interim agreement on sharing the waters of Teesta and Feni,reportedly ready to be signed now,comes 15 years after the accord on the Ganges waters was signed in 1996.

There was much concern in the last few months that the delay in the prime minister’s trip to Dhaka might put the opportunities in Bangladesh beyond India’s grasp as the tenure of Hasina,elected to power in December 2008,crossed the midway point this year.

Dr Singh’s trip,then,comes virtually at the very last favourable moment in Dhaka’s political calendar. Yet,it is better late than never.

Given South Asia’s accident- prone diplomacy,one must hope that there is no development that undermines Delhi-Dhaka ties in the two months before Dr Singh’s scheduled visit.

For now,though,the script looks good. The bureaucrats in Delhi and Dhaka have done a fine job of negotiating agreements on a range of difficult issues. Both the establishments have overcome their traditional resistance to change and have focused on producing outcomes that are mutually beneficial.

While some i’s remain to be dotted and some t’s must be crossed,high-level political visits from Delhi in the coming weeks should set the stage for a very productive and possibly a historic visit by Dr Singh to Dhaka.

External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna’s visit to Dhaka this week will be followed by Home Minister P. Chidambaram’s and Water Resources Minister Salman Khursheed’s. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee and Commerce Minister Anand Sharma have been actively monitoring the progress on bilateral trade and economic cooperation.

Congress president Sonia Gandhi,who plans to attend an international conference in Dhaka later this month,could provide the personal touch of the Gandhi-Nehru family for a reordering of bilateral ties.

Even more important is the political blessing from the new chief minister of West Bengal,Mamata Banerjee. National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon was in Kolkata last week briefing the chief minister on the agreements being worked out with Bangladesh.

Mamata’s presence on the prime minister’s delegation to Dhaka would lend much credibility to the visit. One hopes

Dr Singh will also take along some of the chief ministers from Assam and other northeastern states who have a huge stake in the improved relationship with Bangladesh.

Dr Singh’s visit is about overcoming the bitter legacies of the Partition that tore a coherent economic and cultural space in the eastern subcontinent into bits that could not cooperate even in self-interest.

The new framework being developed by Dr Singh and Sheikh Hasina will have an effect beyond bilateral relations.

Transit arrangements being negotiated between Delhi and Dhaka also involve Nepal and Bhutan. Bilateral energy and electricity sharing agreements between India and Bangladesh could become models for comprehensive South Asian sub-regional cooperation.

The prime minister’s visit should also be about celebrating Bangladesh’s rapid development — a recent Citibank report lists Bangladesh as one of the 11 emerging economies that will contribute to global growth — and its potential to help reintegrate the eastern subcontinent and reconnect South Asia to East Asia.

Dhaka,then,is a natural partner for Delhi in the strategic re-imagination of our immediate and extended neighbourhood.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Centre for Policy Research,Delhi,express@expressindia.com