Opinion My enemy’s enemy…

Ask almost anyone in the BJP,and they’ll whisper,“If (Narendra) Modi is made leader,we’ll win for sure…Advani is a good man,but he is no Vajpayee.” But no one dares broach this directly with Advani. Similarly,ask almost anyone in the Congress and they’ll tell you,“If Priyanka (Gandhi-Vadra) leads,we’ll surely cross 250. As for Rahul-ji,he’s a good man,but he doesn’t have Indira Gandhi’s charisma.” But no one dares broach this with Sonia Gandhi.

It is clear therefore that Advani and Manmohan Singh will be declared the faces of their parties this season,notwithstanding the serious doubts within their cadre. Both Congress and the BJP are beset by similar problems. Both are in tortuous relationships with their allies,albeit with minor differences. Among the allies of the Congress,there are multiple candidates for the PM’s job. Laloo Yadav has spoken for himself several times. Sharad Pawar,on the other hand,has been talking to allies of both Congress and the BJP exploring a post-poll agreement on his name. His latest thought is that Congress and the BJP will weaken after the coming elections. But since the elections are nearly here,it seems that Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi will be kept in the wings for the next round. It is apparent,however,that Rahul’s face will be more prominent than Manmohan Singh’s,and within the BJP,the campaign demand for Narendra Modi will be greater than the demand for Advani.

So,what lies ahead and who would be PM? Honestly said,no one really knows. Three months back the BJP was preparing to take over and the prime ministership of Advani appeared to be a given. Indeed,three months back,the Congress was in ‘departure mode’. Even diehards felt that returning to power was impossible. Everything seemed to be going wrong — the government’s handling of terrorism,the onslaught of inflation,the breakdown with the communists,the angst of the Muslims. But assembly elections in Delhi and Rajasthan turned the tables. Particularly Delhi. Notwithstanding terrorism and inflation,the message was that if Sheila Dikshit could win,the combo of Manmohan Singh and Rahul Gandhi would surely yield votes.

The BJP hasn’t lost hope either. It thrives on its belief in the terror card. It hopes to prove that the Congress is incapable of combating Pak-sponsored terrorism. The party also feels that economic slowdown,rising unemployment,and the general feeling of insecurity will hurt the Congress.

The truth is that top guns of both parties are living with the fear of uncertainty. The semi-finals in Madhya Pradesh,Rajasthan and Delhi have made nonsense of their electoral mathematics. The state of indecision in both parties is apparent because both have begun to say quite openly that who forms the next government will be determined by their respective allies. For example,in UP will Mulayam deliver for the Congress? In Bihar,will Laloo cover up for them? The Congress doesn’t have an identity in both states,but it is equally true that UP,and Bihar will decide the locus of the Congress in the centre. On its part,the BJP doesn’t know which way Jayalalithaa will turn. Nor is it clear about Mamata Banerjee or Chandrababu. In fact,the BJP doesn’t even have much of an identity in Tamil Nadu,West Bengal or Andhra. But its war for locus has to be fought nonetheless.

It is due to these uncertain times that the formula for a grand alliance has been revived. Both Congress and the BJP have run coalition governments. Both have been badgered by their allies. Both know what it feels to grin and bear it. So,the formula has re-emerged from this pain. The two major leaders who spoke to me in great detail recently are convinced that this formula would work. Above all,they see it in overall national interest. But they don’t wish to go public with it yet. If I get their assent,I will surely reveal their names to you. Meanwhile,just think if the Congress and the BJP have a pact!

The writer is Chairman and Editor-in-Chief of India TV